High Wind Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

748 
WWUS72 KGSP 250052
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
752 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70
MPH. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

NCZ033-048>052-058-059-251100-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.A.0002.130225T2300Z-130226T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
752 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE 
  BORDER ABOVE 3500 FEET.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WINDS.

* TIMING...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWERS LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES 
  AND BLOCKING ROADS. DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$

618 
WWUS72 KGSP 250934
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...DAMAGING HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FEET...

.A LARGE AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL CREATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL INCREASE
TO 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS REACHING 60 TO 65 MPH. ELEVATIONS
BELOW 3500 FEET WILL EXPERIENCE LOWER WIND SPEEDS...YET STILL
STRONG AT AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS.
 
NCZ033-048>052-058-059-252100-
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0002.130225T2300Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.130226T0500Z-130226T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0003.130226T0500Z-130226T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA
434 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY BELOW 3500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING ABOVE 3500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY BELOW
3500 FEET HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND ADVISORY BELOW
3500 FEET IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TENNESSEE
  BORDER.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS ABOVE 3500 FEET. STRONG WINDS BELOW
  3500 FEET.

* TIMING...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ABOVE
  3500 FEET. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH BELOW 3500 FEET.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES
  AND BLOCKING ROADS AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ABOVE 3500
  FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE
WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

&&

$$

KRENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON
MONDAY...PROVIDING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A COOL NORTHEAST WIND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LATE MONDAY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMS UP
FROM THE GULF AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM
TEXAS REACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. H85 MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY.
THEREFORE...STILL ONLY EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DRY FCST. LOWS SHUD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THRU THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO NOT DECREASE UNTIL AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...THE GFS KEEPS THE CWFA BASICALLY DRY AS COASTAL CONVECTION
DISRUPTS MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED MDL
TRENDS AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP TIMING ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT THE
MORNING TO ME DRY WITH PRECIP CHC INCREASING FROM THE SW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE DAY...CHC POP MOVES TO A CHESTER-SPA-
BREVARD-FRANKLIN LINE. ANY QPF DURING THE DAY WOULD BE LIGHT. WITH
PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON OR LATER...HIGHS SHUD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN PREV FCST. STILL...HIGHS END UP A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EST SUNDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE A
DEEP CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
SHOW A VORT LOBE LEAVING THE BASE OD THE TROUGH AND CROSSING NE GA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW
MOVES UP THE OF RIVER VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER VORT LOBE CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE UPPER LOW REACHES LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHILE A CHANNELED VORT LOBE CROSSES OUR AREA. ON WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE NW OH...SE MI...NE IN AREA...WHILE
A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND ITS BASE AND REACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

STRONG SE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. A COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM CANADA AND NE SURFACE FLOW.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT SOME SLEET AND
THEN FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE COLD AIR WEDGE MAY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
CURRENT MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION WOULD BE WELL EAST OF
OUR PIEDMONT COUNTIES. STIFF SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
EAST COAST HIGH AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP INTERSTATE 85...AFTER
WHICH A DRY SLOT RUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NEGATIVELY TILTED...POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN NE GA AND SW NC FIRST...
SPREADING NE WITH TIME. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL BE LIMITED. SINCE THE TOP OF THE MOIST
LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ICE NUCLEATION...JUST A COLD RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE BRIEFLY DECREASES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF ONE
OF THE UPPER VORT LOBES. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER NC MOUNTAINS
MAY BE COLD ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG UPPER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. FLOW AT 850 MB WILL VEER TO THE WSW DURING THE
DAY...IMPROVING UPSLOPE FLOW...WHILE MORE ROBUST COLD ADVECTION SETS
UP...AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDS HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE COLD AIR
FOR ICE NUCLEATION TO OCCUR. BY LATE IN THE DAY MODEL SOUNDINGS
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS...AND ON A FEW HIGH PEAKS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NC
MOUNTAINS.  MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS
TO SPREAD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE
OVER WRN PA/NY EARLY THU. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
LOCATION AND DEPTH OF THIS MAJOR FEATURE EARLY ON...BUT THEN VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON ADDITIONAL ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW AND CROSSING
THE REGION FRI THROUGH SUN.

LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE S OF THE
CYCLONE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WED NIGHT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
ALREADY DOWN TO MINUS 4 DEG C AND FALLING THROUGH THU INTO THU
NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS FOR STEADY W TO NW UPSLOPE FLOW
SNOWFALL AT LEAST INTO THU NIGHT...BUT WITH SOME INDICATION OF THE
UPSLOPE MOISTURE SHALLOWING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS THEN
DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS/CMC BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A DIGGING
WAVE AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE ECM FEATURES
THE DIGGING ENERGY MUCH FARTHER TO THE SW WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE
IMPACTING THE SRN APPALACHIANS. REGARDLESS OF THE POSITION OF THE
WAVE...THE ECM SOLUTION MAY BE UNDERDONE ON PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD GIVEN THE LIKELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY FROM THE EARLY WEEK
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED WET SOIL CONDITIONS. THE ERN TROUGH
WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EXPECT MINS 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CLEAR SKIES AND NWLY WIND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN NLY THEN
NELY OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CIRRUS INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH STRATOCU DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK IN
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SLY FLOW. BKN STRATOCU EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING ON. WIND BECOMES ENE BY MID MORNING WITH LOW END GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TRENDS TO KCLT. THE SC SITES WILL SEE SWLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING NELY DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUING THRU
THE MORNING MONDAY. KAVL WILL SEE NLY WIND BECOMING SELY NEAR
DAYBREAK AND SSE DURING THE MORNING MONDAY. KHKY WINDS WILL TRACK
CLOSER TO KCLT. STRATOCU COMES IN A LITTLE EARLIER OVER SC AND LATER
OVER NC.

OUTLOOK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY...WITH MORE MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH SNOW SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ033-048>052-058-059.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
931 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251445-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
931 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A MOIST WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PUSH NORTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT MOST LOCALES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. COMBINED WITH A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF RAINFALL...THERE
COULD BE PERIODS OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WHICH WOULD CREATE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.