Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE EAST BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...STILL A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OUT THERE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...AS LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO MAINTAIN SOME UPSLOPE LIFT IN THOSE
AREAS. WITH THAT IN PLACE...IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE SOME
KIND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...AN UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
RETROGRADING SO STRONGLY/QUICKLY TO THE WEST. IT ALMOST MAKES ONE
THINK THE MAP HAS BEEN TURNED UPSIDE DOWN OR THAT I AM VIEWING THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE IN REVERSE. THE EFFECT OF THE RETROGRADING LOW
WILL BE TO BRING A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST AND
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL RAISE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THE RESULTING STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR MORE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BEAR IN MIND THAT WE HAD ANOTHER FOUR
FLASH FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WAS WITH
AN ENVIRONMENT THAT HAD QUITE A BIT LESS PW ON THE ORDER OF 1.4
INCHES. THE RECENT PAST IS LITTERED WITH FLASH FLOOD EVENTS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE MTNS TO THE WRN PIEDMONT. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ARE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN
RECENT MEMORY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING SUGGEST A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR
THAT REASON...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE NOT
AS MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN...AND THE SMOKIES WHERE A BIT OF A RAIN
SHADOW WILL EXIST. THE CAUSE WILL BE CONVECTIVE STORMS SO NOT
EVERYONE WILL GET FLOODING RAIN...BUT IT IS EASY TO IMAGINE A HALF A
DOZEN FLOOD EVENTS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. THE PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM SATURDAY...GUIDANCE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
BACK EDGE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING EAST TO WEST ACRS
THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO
EXIST ACRS MOST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME CONVECTIVE INITIATION BEGINS
WITHIN SELY LLVL FLOW. EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS...ESP IN THE UPR SAVANNAH VALLEY AND WRN/CENTRAL NC MTNS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MUGGY AIR MASS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA...AS
UPR LOW RETROGRADES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LARGE ANTICYCLONE
EXPANDS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THIS PERIOD MAY BE OUR
BEST BET TO HAVE A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY (WX-WISE) ACRS THE ENTIRE
CWFA...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING CIN INCREASING WITHIN WARM 850-700 MB
LAYER. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POP OR LESS FROM LATE SUN NIGHT THRU
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...THE LARGE MID-UPR LVL ANTICYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND PERSIST TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SOUTH ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THE GFS FCST SNDGS SHOW WEAKER CIN AND LOWER LFC
HEIGHTS BY WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES
ON A RETURN TO DECENT COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION ACRS
THE AREA EACH DAY...ESP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. I BLENDED IN THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER AFTN HIGHS AND HIGHER AFTN/EVE POPS. THE WARM TEMPS AND
DIURNAL POPS MAKES SENSE AS WE RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL MID-JULY
BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...NOT MUCH HAPPENING ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AT 06Z...ALTHO
SOME ACTIVITY WAS NOTED TO THE EAST AND MOVING TOWARD CHARLOTTE
METRO. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM GENERATING LOW CLOUDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND
THIS IS PROBABLY ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH SEVERAL SITES NOW REPORTING
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EVENTUALLY IFR STRATUS
WILL DEVELOP...NO LATER THAN 10Z BUT PROBABLY BEFORE THAT...AND THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MID MORNING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING LIFTS IT BACK INTO THE MVFR RANGE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER
TO VFR FOR AWHILE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW TO
OUR WEST WILL BRING A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE TARGETED THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE FOR THIS ACTIVITY
BUT IT COULD EASILY DEVELOP BEFOREHAND AND LINGER UNTIL THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. FUTURE ISSUANCES WILL FINE TUNE THE TIMING. WIND
WILL RETAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAINLY NE.

ELSEWHERE...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER AT KAND EARLY THIS MORNING...
BUT OTHERWISE MOST PLACES WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT BAY. DEVELOPING
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP AN MVFR CLOUD DECK...EVENTUALLY
BECOMING IFR STRATUS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ONCE ESTABLISHED... THE
IFR CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID MORNING...WHEN THE CEILING
SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR...THEN SCATTER OUT DURING MIDDAY. THE REST IS
SIMILAR TO KCLT.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH AN MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   64%     MED   70%     MED   72%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  82%     MED   68%     HIGH  81%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     MED   67%     MED   62%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       MED   76%     MED   69%     MED   61%     HIGH  91%
KGMU       HIGH  80%     HIGH  83%     MED   68%     HIGH  80%
KAND       MED   66%     MED   79%     MED   69%     HIGH  92%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NCZ033-035-036-048>050-052-053-056-059-062>065-068>071-
     082-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-132145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
537 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP...AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND THE GROUND IS
SATURATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE EAST.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             3 SW GLEN ALPINE        35.70N 81.81W
07/12/2013  M1.25 INCH       BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OBSERVED ALONG KATHY ROAD.

0952 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW GLEN ALPINE        35.70N 81.81W
07/12/2013                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG KATHY ROAD.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1109 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W GLEN ALPINE         35.73N 81.82W
07/12/2013                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERHOUSE ROAD FLOODED.

1055 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW MORGANTON          35.70N 81.76W
07/12/2013                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE AT BYRD AND CONLEY ROADS.

1055 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S MORGANTON           35.68N 81.71W
07/12/2013                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JENKINS ROAD NEAR BURKEMONT FLOODED.

1055 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW GLEN ALPINE        35.71N 81.81W
07/12/2013                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SWIFT WATER RESCUES NEAR HWY 70 AND KATHY ROAD.

&&

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1129 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

NCZ506-508-130430-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
1129 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1127 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF THERMAL CITY...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3561 8183 3558 8182 3558 8180 3560 8179
      3556 8169 3539 8170 3533 8171 3551 8203
      3565 8195

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1200 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

NCZ049-053-130445-
BUNCOMBE-YANCEY-
1200 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND
SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM EDT...

AT 1156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF BARNARDSVILLE...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3570 8225 3571 8242 3583 8241 3584 8225

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE COLUMBUS           35.28N 82.16W
07/13/2013  E0.00 INCH       POLK               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            STANDING WATER ON FOX MOUNTAIN RD.

0140 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      4 NNE COLUMBUS          35.31N 82.18W
07/13/2013                   POLK               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MUDSLIDE REPORTED ON A PORTION OF SILVER CREEK ROAD.

&&

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

GAZ010-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-130815-
ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS
MOUNTAINS-RABUN-
326 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...NORTHERN
ANDERSON...NORTHERN OCONEE AND SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 415
AM EDT...

AT 323 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOUNTAIN REST TO
LAKE KEOWEE TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF PENDLETON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CENTRAL...
  PINE MOUNTAIN...
  SALEM...

TORRENTIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3500 8317 3501 8307 3495 8278 3473 8250
      3455 8273 3478 8302 3484 8338

ARK