Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

554 
WGUS72 KGSP 190935
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

NCC025-119-191100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-130819T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CABARRUS NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
535 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND
WEST CENTRAL CABARRUS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EDT...

AT 532 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. RUNOFF 
FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAIN HAD PUSHED MALLARD CREEK TO NEAR BANKFULL.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...UNC
CHARLOTTE...CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY AND HARRISBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8072 3528 8077 3530 8078 3533 8080
      3535 8079 3538 8074 3538 8068 3533 8059
      3530 8061 3530 8068

$$

MOORE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST LINGERS. DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AIDED BY UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. HAVE
ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POP TO CATEGORICAL IN MOST PLACES. ACTUAL PRECIP
AMTS ARE PROBABLY HIGHER THAN WHAT THE RADAR INDICATES...BUT STILL
NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY.

PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE MOST
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH A JET STREAK...AND A
SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST...DAMPENING IT BY
TONIGHT. AFTER BOTH FEATURES MOVE AWAY...EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING. WE NEVER REALLY DRY OUT
THROUGH THE DAY...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. A REMNANT UPPER TROF AXIS AND UPPER JET AXIS
WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH EVENING...PROVIDING SOME UPPER
SUPPORT FOR MORE PRECIP. THINK THE MOSGUIDE LOOKS DECENT WITH LIKELY
PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD
REDEVELOP...THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL DO
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF A FLOOD WATCH...BUT AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL REMAIN. HIGH TEMPS MIGHT BE A BIT
COOLER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASED COVERAGE OF PRECIP. FOR
TONIGHT...EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE POP ACROSS MOST OF THE
FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...THE CWFA WILL REMAIN INVOF A SHARP SHEAR
AXIS/TROF THRU THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW DEEP
THE TROF WILL BE AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL CROSS THE ERN STATES INTO
LATE WEEK. OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. IN THE LLVLS...THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL NUDGE INTO THE SERN STATES...RESULTING IN
PERSISTENT MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE ATLANTIC/GULF...AND DECENT
DIURNAL INSTBY EACH DAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THIS
MONTH...THE HIGH PWATS WILL RESULT IN A NONZERO LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD THREAT IN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF THE THREAT IN THE HWO. SEVERE THREAT SHUD REMAIN LOW
GIVEN MOIST PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A WEAKNESS IN THE UPR LVL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA...PLACING THE BETTER FORCING AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
EAST AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE WRN CONUS
RIDGE AND PUSH THRU THE AREA FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY. SO STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST CLIMO POPS BOTH THU AND FRI...BUT ON A DECREASING TREND
FROM MIDWEEK. THEREAFTER...THE LARGE UPR RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD AND EXPAND EWD...WITH HEIGHTS
RISING ATOP THE CWFA INTO THE WEEKEND. THE AMPLIFYING PAT MAY BRING
IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS...WHILE THE ECWMF HAS A WEAKER AND MORE
TRANSIENT PARENT HIGH. I DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE DAYS 5-7
GRIDS...WHICH ARE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DIURNAL SLGT CHC TO LOW-END
CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIR FIELD
THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VISIBILITY MAY DROP INTO MVFR RANGE AS
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL VARY
FROM VFR TO MVFR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT MOST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT AN IFR CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP BY 10Z AT THE LATEST. ONCE
ESTABLISHED...THE IFR WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF MVFR CEILING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATS UP...THEN VFR WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
EVENING...BUT DETAIL WILL NEED TO BE FILLED IN LATER. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN HAS BROUGHT VARIABLE
VISIBILITY AND SKY CONDITION ACROSS THE REGION. THINK THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR STRATUS IS A DECENT BET BY AROUND 09Z...BUT SOME
OF  THE DETAIL AROUND THIS DEVELOPMENT STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT.
OTHERWISE...OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO KCLT.

OUTLOOK...DEEP...MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL LIKELY
MEAN MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND MTN VALLEY FOG...AND
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS EACH
DAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   77%     MED   76%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       MED   77%     MED   79%     MED   74%     MED   76%
KAVL       MED   77%     MED   72%     MED   79%     HIGH  83%
KHKY       HIGH  83%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH  85%     MED   74%     HIGH  88%
KAND       MED   70%     HIGH  83%     MED   76%     HIGH  88%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-200300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1054 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
OVERNIGHT IN ANY AREAS IMPACTED BY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF UNSTABLE AIR EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT GOOD
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

NCZ071-072-190800-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-
308 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MECKLENBURG AND WESTERN CABARRUS
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM EDT...

AT 306 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...OR 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF UNC CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...
  CONCORD...

TORRENTIAL RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3515 8070 3516 8098 3535 8096 3536 8092
      3537 8095 3550 8094 3551 8092 3550 8065
      3537 8045

ARK