Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

615 
WGUS72 KGSP 271414
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1014 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

NCC035-109-271600-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-130727T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CATAWBA NC-LINCOLN NC-
1014 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
WESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EDT...

...ANOTHER AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH 
FLOODING CONDITIONS TO WORSEN IN WESTERN CATAWBA AND NORTHWEST 
LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 1005 AM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED WIDESPREAD FLOODING 
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE 
AREA SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH NOON...AS ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MOVES 
ACROSS THE AREA. 

ALL SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE OVERFLOWING  
THEIR BANKS...AND SOME ARE WELL OUT OF THEIR BANKS. NUMEROUS ROADS 
ARE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOOD WATER. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL 
MAKE AN ALREADY BAD SITUATION WORSE. UNLESS YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY... 
DO NOT LEAVE YOUR HOME.     

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF 
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.  

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3575 8122 3548 8149 3552 8151 3555 8151
      3556 8153 3558 8153 3559 8152 3576 8135

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...REDUCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
BRINGING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SC IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING UPSLOPE SELY FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER VORT MAX IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...LLVL H85 WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25KT RANGE BY EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN UPPER ENERGY. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 20-25KTS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG
WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. WITH THAT SAID...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER EXISTS TODAY...MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN RESPONSE TO THESE ELEMENTS...CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT A WELL ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION
WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 16Z-22Z PERIOD AND
LIKELY POPS WERE MENTIONED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DECREASE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO UPPER NVA AND LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH DECREASING H5 HEIGHTS AND ONGOING
PRECIP...TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY SAT MORNING...DURING THE SHORT TERM THE REGION WILL
REMAIN PARTIALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY.

UPPER DYNAMICS ARE WEAK SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE OR
VORTICITY. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...BUT SFC MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE AFTN CAPE VALUES TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...UP TO AROUND
1500 J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT WITH DRIER AIR LIMITING INSTABILITY IN THE
MTNS. OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW LIMITING STORM MOTION. HOWEVER MODEST UPPER FLOW IN THE
TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE CLOSED LOW DOES KEEP 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR HIGH ENOUGH THAT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO FIRE THEY COULD POSE AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT PROG
SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY ALOFT.

FOLLOWING DIURNAL HEATING SUNDAY LLVL THETA-E VALUES BEGIN DROPPING
AND CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU MONDAY MORNING. WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD
WANE...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE A BIT
LATER INTO THE EVENING THAN USUAL. WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE SEEN ALONG
WITH HIGH 1000-850MB RH OVER THE PIEDMONT SO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT SCHC POPS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
OVER THE SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. THE FRONT HAVING PASSED
THROUGH EARLY...LOW TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER IN THE
MTNS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FOOTHILLS WILL SEE LOWS
A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE SAT NIGHT.

ON MONDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS LOWER AND WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRECLUDE CONVECTION. CONSENSUS OF MAJOR GUIDANCE IS
FOR A DRY FCST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. THICKNESS VALUES
BEGIN TO INCH BACK UP LATE MON...OFFSETTING FURTHER COOLING
MAKING FOR SIMILAR LOWS MON NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS LATE MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE EAST COAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONTAL SYSTEM...USHERING IN DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF INVERSIONS AND WARMER AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA CAPPED THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALLOWING
ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO SATURATE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DIPS DOWN...AND THE MOIST AIR COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE FOR GREATEST POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GENERAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN
UNSETTLED WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

CLOUD COVER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS
BELOW AVERAGE...AND HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO LOWER THICKNESS ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS TO I-26 CORRIDOR WAS RATHER SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE
AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS LINE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
7Z AND 9Z SAT AND TEMPO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED ACCORDINGLY. CURRENT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE TO MVFR ONCE THE LINE MOVES THE FIELD
AND MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ON SAT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RE-DEVELOPER DURING THE PRIME HEATING HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD THOUGH STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE...A LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND UPSTATE SC OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS BEHIND THIS LINE
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THOUGH INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL BE
SEEN INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...KAVL MAY SEE PATCHY FOG
WITH BRIEF IFR VISBY/CEILING TOWARD THE SUNRISE. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SAT. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THOUGH STRONGER WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN
THUNDERSTORMS. KAVL WILL SEE WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE DIMINISHING. BRIEF DRYING IS POSSIBLE ON MON AND TUE WITH HIGH
PRES FOLLOWING FROPA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       MED   66%     MED   74%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       MED   77%     MED   74%     MED   79%     MED   67%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     MED   72%     HIGH  80%     LOW   53%
KHKY       MED   70%     HIGH  84%     MED   67%     MED   71%
KGMU       MED   79%     MED   77%     MED   78%     MED   67%
KAND       MED   76%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  86%     MED   61%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...JOH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...JOH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-280815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
410 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE FREQUENT AT TIMES...AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BRIEF
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
704 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W HICKORY             35.74N 81.38W
07/27/2013  M3.04 INCH       CATAWBA            NC   COCORAHS

            3 HOUR TOTAL. MINOR FLOODING ALSO REPORTED.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HICKORY                 35.74N 81.33W
07/27/2013                   CATAWBA            NC   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED IN HICKORY

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
802 AM EDT SAT JUL 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CONOVER                 35.71N 81.22W
07/27/2013                   CATAWBA            NC   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL STREAMS FLOODED WITH SOME FLOODED BY CREEKS IN
            CONOVER

&&

PTANNER