Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

942 
WGUS72 KGSP 170007
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
807 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

NCC011-170130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130717T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-
807 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY COUNTY UNTIL 930
PM EDT...

AT 806 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH 
FLOODING INCLUDE...NEWLAND...BANNER ELK...INGALLS AND LINVILLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3619 8184 3611 8180 3607 8173
      3596 8181 3600 8190 3595 8196 3592 8195
      3592 8200 3596 8205 3602 8204 3611 8208
      3613 8203 3628 8193 3629 8190

$$

CDG

995 
WGUS72 KGSP 170125
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
925 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

NCC011-170140-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-130717T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-
925 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY COUNTY WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 930 PM EDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3619 8184 3611 8180 3607 8173
      3596 8181 3600 8190 3595 8196 3592 8195
      3592 8200 3596 8205 3602 8204 3611 8208
      3613 8203 3628 8193 3629 8190

$$

CDG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL BRING A BRIEF DRYING
PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY. DURING THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NC AND FURTHER EAST NEAR THE NC TRIAD.  STILL
EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.  20Z MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500-3000J/KG ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT REGION.  THIS COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL DCAPE WILL PROVIDE
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. AS
FOR THE FORECAST...ADJUSTED TEMPS TO FIT RECENT TRENDS...NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 240 PM...THE FIRST SHRAS OF THE AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF JACKSON AND MACON COUNTIES. BASED ON THE COOLING
ON IR...I EXPECT A FEW MORE SHRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN NC MTNS
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...12Z 4KM WRF-NMM...AND SPC SSEO I WILL FORECAST THE
FOLLOWING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BETWEEN
20Z-22Z...ISO TO SCT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR SW TO NE ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BETWEEN 22Z-4Z...ISO TO SCT COVERAGE MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-77.

OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS AT KFFC AND KGSO INDICATE CAPES BETWEEN
2500-3000 J/KG...VERIFYING WELL WITH THE LATEST MESOSCALE CAPE
ANALYSIS...WITH WBZ AROUND 11.5 KFT. DRY MID LEVEL AIR MAY APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...RESULTING IN
DCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FEW WIND AND
HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY ASH OUT OR MOVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 5Z. DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE PRE DAWN PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS
TO THE L70S EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE GFS INDICATES THAT A WEAK MID LEVEL
S/W WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE MTNS BY 18Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES RANGING FROM
2500-3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W SHOULD
TRIGGER MTN AND FOOTHILL CONVECTION EARLIER THAN TODAY...POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS LATE MORNING. SCT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW
OF THESE TSRA COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL...WILL
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. HIGH TEMPS MAY MEET OR EXCEED TODAY/S VALUES
BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...A SLOW TRANSITION IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL OCCUR IN THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI TIMEFRAME. THE CLOSED UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY THE BERMUDA HIGH
WILL BE BACK IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. HENCE...THE WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD FROM NE WED NIGHT...TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THU
AND THEN TO SW ON FRI AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REDEVELOPS. THE UPSHOT IN
REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS
EXPECTED...THERE SHOULD BE NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STRONG DAILY HEATING...AFTERNOON CAPES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE
INCREASING TO 1500-2000J. THEREFORE...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE EACH EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. STAYED CLOSE TO THE ALL-BLEND GRID FIELDS
WHICH COINCIDE NICELY WITH THE THINKING OF OUR NEIGHBORS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO A TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY. A
WEAK BOUNDARY APPEARS TO PASS THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE
TIMING OF THE LATER MAIN COLD FRONT PASSAGE. BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY POPS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
COMING ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AND A BROAD TROUGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED, WITH POPS NEAR CLIMO FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE...AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DECREASE HIGHS TO JUST
BELOW CLIMO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...AT 1730Z...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CU
OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...NORTH OF THE CLT METRO AREA. FURTHER UPSTREAM
OVER THE VIRGINIAS...A NW TO SE BAND OF TCU TO TSRA WAS DRIFTING
SLOWLY SW. THE VIRGINA CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN EDGE
OF A 600DAM H5 RIDGE...FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF THE SW MOTION. THE
SPC SSEO REF >40 DBZ INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT BETWEEN 0Z TO 3Z. AT THAT TIME...INSTABILITY VALUES
WILL LIKELY HAVE PASSED PEAK...BUT WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT TSRA. THE
TAF WILL FEATURE FAIR WEATHER CU THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT NNW WINDS. THE DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH A
TEMPO FROM 0Z TO 4Z...MODERATE DCAPE VALUES SUPPORT A MENTION OF
GUST TO 20 KTS. THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...MOST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINA TERMINALS REMAIN UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CU...TCU OVER THE MTN RIDGES. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES CAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE MTNS. RIDGETOP
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH CU
BASES BETWEEN 040-050. I WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR HKY TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ARRIVAL OF A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 3Z TO 5Z.
TERMINALS WILL SEE LESS POTENTIAL FOR FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE MTNS BEFORE 18Z WED.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
RETURN TO TYPICAL SWLY MOIST FLOW REGIME BY END OF WEEK WILL BRING
BACK NORMAL...IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE
SHRA/TSRA ACRS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     MED   72%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...CDG/NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-171930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

NCZ053-162030-
BUNCOMBE-
351 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BARNARDSVILLE...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  WEAVERVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. IF OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER
INSIDER AN INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3568 8233 3553 8255 3573 8270 3573 8267
      3575 8265 3580 8251 3580 8247 3581 8246
      3581 8243

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW MORGANTON          35.70N 81.74W
07/12/2013                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER RELAYED REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON EASTERN
            HALF OF BYRD ROAD FROM LAST FRIDAY EVENINGS STORM AND A
            FEW TREES FELL ON HOMES ALONG THE ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW