Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2013

Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

July 10, 2013Buncombe County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Jul 10, 2013, 8:06 PM EDT for Buncombe County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2013, 8:06 PM EDT (00:06 UTC)
Expired
Jul 10, 2013, 11:00 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Buncombe County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 10, 8:10 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD5 Nnw Asheville, NCMERRIMON AVENUE FLOODED AT BEAVERDAM CREEK.
Jul 10, 8:15 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Nw Leicester, NCSANDY MUSH CREEK WAY OUT OF ITS BANKS BLOCKING AT LEAST 2 HOMES FROM EXIT ALONG TURNER COVE ROAD. ALSO FOUR ROADS IN THE AREA ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.
Jul 10, 8:15 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD5 Nne Asheville, NCBRIDGE WASHED OUT ON PINECROFT ROAD DUE TO BEAVERDAM CREEK FLOODING. ALSO LONG TIME RESIDENT IN THE AREA WHO IS A TRAINED SPOTTER SAID BASED ON FAMILY FLOOD REFERENCES THIS IS THE HIGHEST BEAVERDAM CREEK HAS GOTTEN SINCE 1937. BEAVERDAM FIRE DEPARTMENT HAS 3 F
Jul 10, 8:15 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD5 Nne Asheville, NCPINECROFT ROAD FLOODED AT BEAVERDAM CREEK.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 5 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 4 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 243 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2013-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1181 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2013-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -31 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1181 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1044 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
20 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

369 
WGUS52 KGSP 110006
FFWGSP
NCC021-110300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0046.130711T0006Z-130711T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

* AT 802 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE      
  WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS     
  FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA IN THE LAST 3 HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL  
  1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.  

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...ASHEVILLE MALL...AVERY CREEK...BILTMORE
  FOREST...BLACK MOUNTAIN...FAIRVIEW...I-26 AT I-40...LEICESTER...   
  SWANNANOA...UNC ASHEVILLE...WEAVERVILLE AND WOODFIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8234 3571 8228 3559 8229 3553 8217
      3551 8223 3546 8225 3550 8233 3546 8237
      3547 8242 3544 8253 3542 8254 3544 8255
      3546 8267 3542 8275 3547 8280 3557 8277
      3563 8282 3562 8285 3568 8289 3576 8262

$$

CDG
2 follow-up statements
682 
WGUS72 KGSP 110116
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
916 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

NCC021-110300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130711T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BUNCOMBE NC-
916 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BUNCOMBE COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM EDT...

AT 912 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. HOWEVER...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE AND AN ADDITIONAL 
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...ASHEVILLE MALL...AVERY CREEK...BILTMORE
FOREST...BLACK MOUNTAIN...FAIRVIEW...I-26 AT I-40...LEICESTER...
SWANNANOA...UNC ASHEVILLE...WEAVERVILLE AND WOODFIN.

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF STREAM FLOODING ACROSS BUNCOMBE COUNTY HAVE BEEN 
RECEIVED INCLUDING BEAVERDAM CREEK AND REEMS CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8234 3571 8228 3559 8229 3553 8217
      3551 8223 3546 8225 3550 8233 3546 8237
      3547 8242 3544 8253 3542 8254 3544 8255
      3546 8267 3542 8275 3547 8280 3557 8277
      3563 8282 3562 8285 3568 8289 3576 8262

$$

CDG
159 
WGUS72 KGSP 110220
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

NCC021-110300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130711T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BUNCOMBE NC-
1020 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BUNCOMBE COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM EDT...

AT 1019 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT FLASH FLOODING 
WAS OCCURRING AROUND BEAVERDAM CREEK AND REEMS CREEK IN BUNCOMBE 
COUNTY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...ASHEVILLE MALL...AVERY CREEK...BILTMORE FOREST...BLACK
MOUNTAIN...FAIRVIEW...I-26 AT I-40...LEICESTER...SWANNANOA...UNC
ASHEVILLE...WEAVERVILLE AND WOODFIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS
AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8234 3571 8228 3559 8229 3553 8217
      3551 8223 3546 8225 3550 8233 3546 8237
      3547 8242 3544 8253 3542 8254 3544 8255
      3546 8267 3542 8275 3547 8280 3557 8277
      3563 8282 3562 8285 3568 8289 3576 8262

$$

CDG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 10, 4:55 PM EDT, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 4:55 PM EDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
455 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...PUSHING EAST
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY...AND STALLING TO THE
EAST. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM CHANTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 440 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION STARTED MAINLY ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS NOW FILLING IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ON THE STRENGTH OF
MAINLY WEAK OUTFLOWS. STILL ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT
PATTERN TO BE SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND
BACK BUILDING CONVECTION THROUGH EVENING. THE TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ON THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. LAYER RH/S
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THERE IS MORE SUBSTANTIVE UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND DPVA. THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SO WILL
FEATURE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW FOR
PART OR ALL OF THE FA. IF WE HAVE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY PCPN THIS
EVENING THAT WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE THE NEED FOR HAVING A WATCH
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE
EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING N FL BY FRIDAY MORNING....WHILE
AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE
MODELS CUT OF A LOW IN THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND THE GFS
CLOSES OFF ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS THESE TWO
LOWS MOVE IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MOVING SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS ON BRINGING DRY AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS DEVELOPS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE
NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...WITH A POST FRONTAL
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE.

FORECAST POPS WIL BE HIGHEST WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL
POPS WILL BE CARRIED BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY FAVORING THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR UPSLOPE FLOW...AND THE PIEDMONT FOR PROXIMITY TO THE
STALLED FRONT.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES FURTHER
ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. BOTH GFS AND EC DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NE CONUS THIS WEEKEND...AND RECENT RUNS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON INTENSITY AND TIMING. THE LOW DIPS SOUTH AND
RETROGRADES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CWA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE SC COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING A
TRIGGER FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SURFACE HIGH OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN US WILL MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC...SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS ABOVE CLIMO IN THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED...MAINLY FAVORING A DIURNAL TREND.

THE OTHER MAJOR FACTOR IN THE EXTENDED IS OF
COURSE TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL. CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS CHANTAL
STEADILY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING JUST TO THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
ON SATURDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
REMNANTS BY LATE WEEKEND. IF THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST PATH
HOLDS...CHANTAL'S EFFECTS MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATH OF THE
REMNANT LOW AFTER DISSIPATION. REGARDLESS OF CHANTAL'S TACK...THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK
FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN OUTFLOW DEVELOPING NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDLANDS HAS
PRODUCED A SHALLOW LINE OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD.
COVERAGE AND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS THIS OUTFLOW MOVES
NWD...BUT THE TEMPO FOR TSRA HAS BEEN MOVED UP AN HOUR TO 21Z AND
GUSTS TO 20 KT HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE OUTFLOW. THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING/VERY EARLY THU MORNING...THEN WIDESPREAD
STRATUS IS AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. HAVE BROUGHT IN A BKN012
CIG AT 0900 UTC FOR NOW...THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE.
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN BEST AT KAVL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD FILL IN CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES
THROUGH MID EVENING ON THE STRENGTH OF OUTFLOWS. THE VERY WEAK
STEERING FLOW IS THE ONLY FACTOR TO LIMIT COVERAGE IN THE OTHERWISE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT TRIGGERING OUTFLOWS AROUND.
WILL STILL FEATURE TEMPO TSRA MAINLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z THIS EVENING.
ONCE THE CONVECTIVE DISSIPATES...WE SHOULD SEE STRATUS BLOSSOM OVER
THE REGION AGAIN OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
EVERYWHERE BEGINNING AROUND 09Z. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TOMORROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE MOIST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.

OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND MORNING FOG/STRATUS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AND
MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH  99%     HIGH  89%     MED   69%     MED   78%
KGSP       HIGH  93%     HIGH  87%     MED   72%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   69%     HIGH  88%
KHKY       HIGH  96%     HIGH  85%     MED   63%     MED   78%
KGMU       HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  85%
KAND       HIGH  99%     HIGH  92%     MED   72%     HIGH  85%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...NONE.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ004>006-
     010>012-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...HG/MCAVOY
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 3:36 PM EDT, 4 hours 30 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>003-007>009-013-014-111930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
UNION SC-CHESTER-
336 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE FROM
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS. NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME
AREAS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
SUPPORT SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004>006-010>012-019-111930-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
336 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
BRIEFLY SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME
AREAS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
SUPPORT SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 7:00 PM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

GAZ010-NCZ062-110000-
MACON-RABUN-
700 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RABUN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 656 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OTTO...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF FRANKLIN...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DILLARD...
  HIGHLANDS...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3515 8346 3512 8318 3509 8315 3506 8317
      3504 8314 3499 8310 3497 8312 3494 8312
      3493 8313 3493 8315 3492 8316 3488 8322
      3498 8352
Local storm report, Jul 10, 7:06 PM EDT, 1 hour before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
706 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSW BARNARDSVILLE     35.71N 82.47W
07/10/2013                   BUNCOMBE           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            REEMS CREEK ROAD WAS FLOODED BY REEMS CREEK WHERE REEMS
            CREEK ROAD INTERSECTS WITH MANEY BRANCH ROAD AND SUGAR
            COVE ROAD. HEAVY EQUIPMENT HAS BEEN BROUGHT IN TO REPAIR
            THE DAMAGED ROADWAY. ROAD IS NOW CLOSED TO TRAFFIC.

&&

OUTLAW
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 7:08 PM EDT, 58 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
708 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

NCZ053-110000-
BUNCOMBE-
708 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY
THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 705 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEAVERVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BARNARDSVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3580 8234 3575 8234 3571 8228 3569 8230
      3568 8228 3565 8229 3561 8227 3562 8261
      3575 8264 3580 8252 3580 8247 3581 8246
      3582 8236
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 7:20 PM EDT, 46 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
720 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

NCZ503>506-110000-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
720 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND
WESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 716 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE JAMES...OR 8 MILES
NORTH OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE JAMES...
  ASHFORD...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3590 8180 3569 8180 3571 8202 3586 8203
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 7:23 PM EDT, 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
723 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

SCZ006-007-110030-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
723 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND WESTERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 722 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAYWOOD MALL...OR 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MAULDIN...
  HAYWOOD MALL...
  PELHAM ROAD AT I-85...
  GSP AIRPORT...
  GREER...
  REIDVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3475 8235 3486 8247 3505 8228 3507 8222
      3511 8222 3513 8220 3492 8198
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 7:41 PM EDT, 25 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
741 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

NCZ508-110045-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-
741 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 738 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARRIS...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SPINDALE...
  FOREST CITY...
  BOSTIC...
  CLIFFSIDE...
  ELLENBORO...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3535 8170 3521 8176 3518 8190 3519 8197
      3525 8196 3530 8203 3537 8206 3558 8169

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 10, 8:19 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCleveland56 min
Jul 10, 8:45 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCleveland, Polk, Rutherford105 min
Jul 10, 9:01 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCatawba, Iredell, Lincoln3 hr
Jul 10, 9:09 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCleveland51 min
Jul 10, 9:37 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRowan68 min
Jul 10, 10:59 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPBuncombe3 hr
Jul 10, 11:06 PM EDTRiver Flood AdvisoryGSPHenderson, Transylvania12 hr
Jul 11, 4:16 AM EDTFlash Flood WatchGSPAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 17 more24 hr
Jul 11, 9:12 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg63 min
Jul 11, 9:50 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg2 hr
Jul 11, 10:02 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMecklenburg3 hr
Jul 11, 12:53 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPMecklenburg3 hr
Jul 11, 2:17 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion43 min
Jul 11, 2:49 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell41 min
Jul 11, 3:17 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPIredell2 hr
Jul 11, 5:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion57 min
Jul 11, 7:14 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander, Davie, Iredell61 min
Jul 11, 7:42 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPAlexander, Davie, Iredell3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2013Every flash flood warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.