Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

586 
WGUS72 KGSP 072232
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
632 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

NCC011-023-027-080000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-130708T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
632 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR 
ESTIMATES THAT OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN LESS THAN A ONE 
HOUR PERIOD NEAR THE ESCARPMENT IN EASTERN AVERY AND EXTREME WESTERN 
CALDWELL COUNTIES.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
NEWLAND...BANNER ELK...GLOBE...INGALLS...JONAS RIDGE AND LINVILLE.

THERE HAS BEEN A REPORT OF FLOODING ON OLD JOHNS RIVER ROAD BY THE 
JOHNS RIVER. ALSO...WILSON CREEK AND ITS TRIBUTARIES MAY BE FLOODING 
ALONG HIGHWAY 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 8184 3616 8182 3612 8181 3612 8163
      3592 8173 3589 8191 3596 8194 3592 8197
      3595 8204 3600 8206 3602 8204 3611 8208
      3620 8192

$$

ARK

216 
WGUS72 KGSP 072355
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

NCC011-023-027-080010-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-130708T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
755 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 800 PM EDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 8184 3616 8182 3612 8181 3612 8163
      3592 8173 3589 8191 3596 8194 3592 8197
      3595 8204 3600 8206 3602 8204 3611 8208
      3620 8192

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...AND STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...UPPER TROF FINALLY LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS A CONSEQUENCE...
MOISTURE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT BACK OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SMALL AREA
OF PVA ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONTS OF NC/SC THUS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS BEING ALONG THE I85/I77
CORRIDORS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.  ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF A HAIL THREAT...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF DCAPE ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD SWATCH OF DCAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THEREFORE WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING.
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THUS KEPT POPS ELEVATED ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.  EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE RAIN
RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...WHICH COMBINED WITH ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS WILL KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT ELEVATED FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 8-10 HOURS.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE AXIS LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
REGION THUS KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED.  INCREASED POPS
YET AGAIN TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS ANY SHOWER
AND OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TAKE ON MORE OF A DIURNAL
TREND DUE TO LACK OF UPPER FORCING.  TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY TO JUST BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM SUNDAY...THE DEPARTING NRN STREAM WAVE SHOULD BE OVER
NEW ENGLAND BY MON NIGHT...BUT IT MAY LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT
FIELD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO TUE. SFC HIGH PRES WILL SET
UP...EXCEPT FOR A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT FROM
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTN/EVENING IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
DESPITE WEAK/LIMITED FORCING GIVEN THE LACK OF CAPPING IN THE
PROFILES. IMPROVED INSOLATION WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES TUE AFTN.

THE COL REGION IN THE UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA INTO WED...WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW UP THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BACK TO SWLY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT BL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE
SW MOUNTAINS...WILL FEATURE SOLID SCT COVERAGE DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORED PERIODS AGAIN WED AFTN/EVENING. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
FEATURE MILD MORNING MINS AND NEAR NORMAL AFTN MAXES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EDT SUNDAY...A SYSTEM DIGGING SWD FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON THU WILL START TO AMPLIFY THE ERN TROUGH AGAIN. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW...WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THU/THU NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE LEE
TROUGH POSITION THROUGH FRI BEFORE STALLING JUST SE OF THE AREA INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT
ISOLD HYDRO CONCERNS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FROPA.

THE MAIN STORY MIGHT BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS FRI/SAT. THE ECMWF DEEPENS THIS LOW
OVER THE BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND RETROGRADES IT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE DEEP/MID SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS FAVORED
SINCE THE LATEST GFS/GEFS HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY AS WELL. THIS COULD
SET UP A SOLID FETCH OF ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE FOR THE LATE
WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS MORE SERIOUS HYDRO ISSUES RETURNING TO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALTHOUGH SKY COVER IS RATHER SPORADIC AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING MOISTURE AXIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THUS
PREVAILED VCSH WITH TEMPO FOR TSRA.  VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SHRA AND PERHAPS TSRA ACTIVITY LASTING THROUGH ABOUT
03-04Z THEREFORE PREVAILED -SHRA AFTER 01Z.  BEYOND THAT CONDITIONS
LOOK TO IMPROVE TO SOLID VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO
LATE MORNING FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. KEPT LOW END VFR CIGS ACROSS ALL OTHER SITES AS CURRENT
RADAR/VISB TRENDS SHOULD KEEP CIGS HIGHER IN THE NEAR TERM.  BEYOND
THAT WENT WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES FOR MVFR CIGS AND VISB
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRA.  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET THUS ADDED -SHRA THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIMEFRAME.
FINALLY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SOLID VFR BY DAYBREAK.  DID
ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR -SHRA AS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWER
REDEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SCT TO NUM SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS NEARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING THE WORK WEEK.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST ACROSS THE MTNS. MOUNTAIN VALLEY
STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP EACH MORNING AFTER MIDNIGHT...PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EAST.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  93%
KGSP       MED   68%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  89%
KAVL       MED   60%     MED   79%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  89%
KHKY       HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  87%
KGMU       MED   65%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  89%
KAND       MED   66%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  89%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-035-
     048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
251 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE LOCALIZED...VERY
WET SOIL CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERSISTENT RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-081900-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
251 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

NCZ033-072045-
AVERY-
354 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AVERY COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

AT 352 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF CROSSNORE...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF NEWLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  NEWLAND...
  LINVILLE...
  BANNER ELK...

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3620 8185 3616 8182 3611 8180
      3607 8173 3604 8175 3599 8185 3598 8188
      3600 8190 3592 8200 3595 8205 3600 8206
      3602 8204 3611 8208 3624 8191

ARK