Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2013

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

August 7, 2013Mason County, Oceana County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 7, 2013, 2:51 AM EDT for Mason County, Oceana County, Michigan. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 7, 2013, 2:51 AM EDT (06:51 UTC)
Expired: Aug 7, 2013, 3:45 AM EDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Mason County, MI, Oceana County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 7, 2:29 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 424 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1453 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 7, 2:40 AM EDT, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 2:40 AM EDT, 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL TODAY.

RGNL RADAR TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A VERY WELL DEVELOPED MCS
WITH HIGH WINDS OVER EAST CENTRAL WI AND WEST CENTRAL LAKE MI. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR NW FCST AREA AND POTENTIALLY BRING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR TRENDS CORROBORATED WITH 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM SIM
Z GUIDANCE AND COLD FRONTAL TIMING SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY
THROUGH AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE... LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND WEAK TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
KTS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING THROUGH AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE PRIMARY SVR WX THREAT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD LOOKS TRANQUIL AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

NO IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IS
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THE MAIN QUESTION IS THE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN... CAN IT REACH SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BEFORE
DISSIPATING? THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. USING THE TIMING TOOL
SEVERAL TIME I FIND THE SAME TREND... EVEN WITH THE 45 KNOT SPEED
OF THE CONVECTION... IT IS SLOWER EACH TIME I CHECK. AS OF 0330Z
IT NOW SUGGESTS MKG AROUND 10Z AND GRR AROUND 11Z AND 12Z FOR AZO
AND BTL. SO I SLOWED THE TIMING IN THE TAFS.

THE CONVECTION ON THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL DEVELOP EAST OF
US-131 EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. IT MAY IMPACT LAN AND JXN MORE SO
THAN AZO AND BTL EVEN SO I KEPT THE VCTS IN THOSE TAF SITES...
AZO...BTL...LAN AND JXN JUST IN CASE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST TO NORTH TODAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO RAMP UP SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER WINDS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HIGH WINDS WILL POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ANTICIPATED WITH RAINFALL TODAY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY IN TERMS OF BASIN AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS...
THOUGH HEAVIEST STORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING ISSUES THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BASIN AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF ONLY
AROUND A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BUT
HEAVIEST STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR TWO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 6, 7:33 PM EDT, 7 hours 18 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 2:28 AM EDT, 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
228 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

MIZ037-038-043-044-070830-
LAKE-MASON-NEWAYGO-OCEANA-
228 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 226 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 40 MILES WEST OF BIG SABLE POINT...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LUDINGTON...          PENTWATER...          BALDWIN...
  NEWAYGO...            FREESOIL...           SHELBY...
  IRONS...              BITELY...             FREMONT...
  LUTHER...             WHITE CLOUD...        BIG SABLE POINT...
  LAKE MICHIGAN RECREATION AREA...            HAMLIN LAKE...
  LUDINGTON STATE PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8556 4329 8557 4329 8604 4347 8604
      4347 8647 4366 8654 4377 8645 4383 8643
      4406 8653 4418 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 289DEG 43KT 4413 8727

LAURENS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 7, 2:21 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		114 min
Aug 7, 2:28 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Lake, Mason, Newaygo, Oceana	2 hr
Aug 7, 3:20 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Lake, Mecosta	55 min
Aug 7, 8:06 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		54 min
Aug 7, 8:16 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Van Buren	59 min
Aug 7, 8:42 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Calhoun, Kalamazoo	63 min
Aug 7, 8:46 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	GRR	Van Buren	4 hr
Aug 7, 1:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Barry, Eaton	62 min
Aug 7, 2:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Eaton	55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2013 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2013

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.