Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL TURN COOLER AND LESS HUMID LATE THIS WEEK WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

OUR PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

TRANQUIL WX IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTN BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCV
THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY
NEAR TO SOUTH OF I-96. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS NOTED SOUTH OF I-96
WITH SB CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND -3 TO -5 LI/S.

THE FCST FOR TOMORROW IS TRICKY WITH 12Z GFS AND NAM AS WELL AS 12Z
4KM WRF-NMM SIM Z GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING FAIRLY LOW CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM SOMEWHAT PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT MUCH
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STAY
FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER IL/IN/OH.

HOWEVER IT WAS NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE HAD QPF AND MUCH
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS FURTHER NORTH OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW
AFTN/EVE. THIS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THEREFORE AT THIS TIME WE WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR TSTORMS ACROSS
OUR AREA TOMORROW.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE AFTN/EVE. OVERALL THOUGH THE GREATER
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW SHOULD STAY OFF
TO OUR SOUTH TO SW ACROS IL/IN IN THE AXIS OF MUCH STRONGER
INSTABILITY. THIS NOTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD CERTAINLY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WAY UP AROUND
2 INCHES. HOWEVER WE HAVE OPTED AGAINST ANY TYPE OF FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINE GIVEN THAT A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE FAVORS AREAS SOUTH TO SW OF OUR AREA FOR HEAVIER RAIN WHERE
THERE IS MUCH STRONGER 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ANY HYDRO
ISSUES WE HAVE SHOULD BE MORE OF A MORE LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM TYPE.

SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM WILL LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE. THIS
LEADS TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS A WHOLE. THE
CHALLENGE IS TO PICK WHEN... IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN... THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCUR IN THE FORECAST AREA. MADE NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST OF
THE CONTINENT WILL RESULT IN A WET LONG TERM. FRIDAY SEEMS TO OFFER
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS... AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVES OUT
THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS LOW IS SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD RESULT
IN MOSTLY SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER... THE DAILY HIGHS SHOULD BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL WITH THE LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ARE
AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
COVERAGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SHORT ... SO LEFT THEM
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE PRESENT. THE THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE
REGION MAY GIVE LOWER MICHIGAN A LULL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED
BY INTERMITTENT SHOWERS INTO THE MORNING. THIN FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE 09-14Z ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AS WINDS
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP AROUND TWO INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW URBAN AND SMALL STREAM TYPE FLOODING ISSUES.
HOWEVER WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND 1000-850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS FAVOR AREAS SOUTH TO SW OF OUR FCST AREA
ACROSS IL/IN FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MACZKO
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...LAURENS
MARINE...LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
332 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-260745-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
332 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LMZ844>849-260745-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
332 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE HAZARDS TO BOATERS AND SWIMMERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1216 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.67W
06/25/2013  M0.25 INCH       KENT               MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            OBSERVED AT SPECTRUM HEALTH IN DOWNTOWN GRAND RAPIDS.

&&

HOVING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
251 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HAIL             7 SSW PLAINWELL         42.35N 85.69W
06/25/2013  M0.25 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0525 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 W SOUTH HAVEN         42.40N 86.29W
06/25/2013  M44.00 MPH       LMZ844             MI   OTHER FEDERAL

            GLERL OBSERVATION

0530 AM     HAIL             4 SE KALAMAZOO          42.24N 85.53W
06/25/2013  M0.25 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COURTESY OF FOX17.

0548 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE KALAMAZOO         42.23N 85.56W
06/25/2013  M1.42 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   ASOS

            45 MINUTE RAINFALL TOTAL.

0600 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W PORTAGE             42.20N 85.65W
06/25/2013                   KALAMAZOO          MI   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SCATTERED TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN IN SEVERAL AREAS
            BETWEEN THE NORTH SIDE OF KALAMAZOO AND SCHOOLCRAFT. NO
            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED HOWEVER. COURTESY OF THE
            KALAMAZOO COUNTY ROAD COMMISSION.

0602 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAND JUNCTION          42.40N 86.07W
06/25/2013  M1.94 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING. MOST FELL IN 45 MINUTES.

0620 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BLOOMINGDALE            42.38N 85.96W
06/25/2013  M2.05 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL. VAST MAJORITY FELL THIS MORNING.

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 E KALAMAZOO           42.28N 85.48W
06/25/2013  M2.35 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0637 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE GALESBURG          42.31N 85.39W
06/25/2013  M2.30 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

0658 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSE KALAMAZOO         42.23N 85.56W
06/25/2013  M2.11 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   ASOS

            2 HOUR RAINFALL AT KALAMAZOO-BATTLE CREEK INTL AIRPORT.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE PAW PAW           42.27N 85.86W
06/25/2013  M0.91 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE VICKSBURG          42.13N 85.52W
06/25/2013  M1.02 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     FLOOD            1 SE KALAMAZOO          42.27N 85.58W
06/25/2013                   KALAMAZOO          MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING OF REED ST AT BURDICK. REPORT RELAYED BY MLIVE.

0700 AM     FLOOD            1 S KALAMAZOO           42.27N 85.59W
06/25/2013                   KALAMAZOO          MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING OF HOWARD ST AT CROSSTOWN PARKWAY WITH CARS
            STALLED AT INTERSECTION. REPORT RELAYED BY MLIVE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE SARANAC            42.96N 85.17W
06/25/2013  M1.63 INCH       IONIA              MI   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL. MOST FELL YESTERDAY EVENING.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S ALLEGAN             42.47N 85.86W
06/25/2013  M1.77 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 HOUR RAINFALL.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW KALAMAZOO          42.22N 85.68W
06/25/2013  M1.37 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE BROOKLYN          42.12N 84.21W
06/25/2013  M1.17 INCH       JACKSON            MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 7AM YESTERDAY. 0.70 FELL BETWEEN
            7AM-8AM TODAY.

0940 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W AUGUSTA             42.34N 85.37W
06/25/2013  M1.25 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

1138 AM     FLOOD            GRAND HAVEN             43.06N 86.22W
06/25/2013                   OTTAWA             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED MINOR FLOODING ON US 31 IN GRAND
            HAVEN WITH 2-3 INCHES OF STANDING WATER ON THE ROAD.
            COURTESY OF WOODTV.

1200 PM     HAIL             GRAND RAPIDS            42.96N 85.67W
06/25/2013  M0.25 INCH       KENT               MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            OBSERVED AT SPECTRUM HEALTH IN DOWNTOWN GRAND RAPIDS.

&&

HOVING