Gale Warning 10, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
352 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE AREA. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
A SURFACE WAVE ON IT THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL
CHANGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS BY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT COOLER WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

THE MAIN ISSUES ARE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
TIMING OF THE SEVERE STORMS IS ONE OF PRIMARY ISSUES AS IS THE
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SO WILL THE
AREA OF CONVECTION'S ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
GREATEST ELEVATED CAPE (INSATIABILITY) COMES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
THE CAPE ELEVATED BY A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION I DO NOT SEE MUCH
OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BY THEN I EXPECT MOST OF THE STORMS
TO BE NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. THE NORTHWEST CWA COULD SEE
AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THAT IS WHERE RAINFALL SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST OVERNIGHT.

THE PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND STREAM WAVE WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON IS WHEN THE STORM SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE WINDS... IF THERE WERE ENOUGH SUNSHINE WE WOULD NEED A WIND
ADVISORY AS THERE IS 50 KNOTS BELOW 1000 FT IN THE BUFKIT PROFILES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE RISK OF FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS I
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THE WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AS FOR THE SEVERS STORM THREAT... WITH THE FRONT TO OUR WEST AND
LOW LEVEL JET WEST OF AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON IT MEANS
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM. THE
SOUTHEAST CWA WILL SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE AND HAVE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.
A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENS TO 70 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. I WOULD EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE SO OF A LINE FROM AZO TO LANSING AFTER 3 PM.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE WITH WAVE ON THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. IT THEN WE SHOULD EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT EXITING THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THIS VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WE MAY WELL NEED HIGH
WIND ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY EVEN A WARNING AS GUSTS TO AT LEAST 50
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY DURING THE DAY. COLDER AIR COMES IN WITH
DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS SO EXPECT MORE RAINFALL FRIDAY
BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE
RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION AS AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE MUCH MORE QUIET THAN THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S/MID 40S. DRY WX
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME SUNSHINE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE CWA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP WAVES ON THE FRONT WHICH RESULT IN RAIN MOVING INTO THE CWA.
HOWEVER GFS IS ABOUT A DAY QUICKER IN MOVING THE RAIN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE RAIN.
WHAT SEEMS MORE CLEAR THOUGH IS THAT THE RAIN WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
MOVE THROUGH...AS IS FREQUENTLY THE CASE WHEN LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TAF SITES THAT SEE THE MOST IMPACT WILL BE KMKG/KGRR. VSBYS
MAY FALL TO LESS THAN 2SM TSRA AT THOSE SITES WITH KMKG SEEING THE
LOWEST CIGS/VSBYS. STEADY RAIN/STORMS WILL PUSH NWD OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR THURSDAY THEN A GALE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING REMAINS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING
WHEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. GIVEN MANY RIVERS ARE HIGH
ALREADY... AND THE GROUND IS SATURATED... THIS SORT OF RAINFALL
WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. SO THE FLOOD WATCH IS
CONTINUED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

MIZ050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-172115-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-CALHOUN-CLINTON-EATON-GRATIOT-INGHAM-IONIA-JACKSON-
KALAMAZOO-KENT-MONTCALM-MUSKEGON-OTTAWA-VAN BUREN-
326 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR SOUTH HAVEN TO BATTLE
CREEK.  ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WERE OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
WEST OF  HOLLAND.   THESE STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOLLAND AND GRAND RAPIDS BY 330 PM EDT...
  MUSKEGON BY 350 PM EDT...
  LANSING BY 420 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8622 4224 8623 4225 8637 4258 8623
      4297 8623 4347 8646 4347 8604 4329 8602
      4326 8531 4329 8531 4330 8556 4347 8556
      4347 8437 4278 8436 4278 8415 4208 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 244DEG 36KT 4264 8586

MJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
339 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             PLAINWELL               42.44N 85.64W
04/17/2013  E0.25 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   PUBLIC

&&