Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1229 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TRENDS AND SVR TSTM POTENTIAL TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER SE ND...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESE THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND WC WI...AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SW INTO SD. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A S/W TROF MOVG INTO NW WI...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVES IN ND AND SOUTHERN SASK. RADAR SHOWED A
SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER NW WI... WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER EASTERN ND AND NORTHERN MN. SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL MN AND A FEW COUNTIES IN FAR NW/WC WI...
FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE SOME NEW
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.

ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVG...EXPECT MOST OF THE PCPN AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO OCCUR
FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FROM A STRONG JET STREAK AND THE NORTH DAKOTA S/W TROF.
WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS OVER NC WI...WHERE THE BEST UPPER FORCING SHOULD OCCUR. SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL IS A TOUGH CALL...AS MUCAPE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH 500-1000 J/KG DURING THE EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SVR THREAT...GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 40-50 KTS...SEASONALLY STRONG WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS AND
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD
SVR WORDING TO THE GRIDS/ZFP...BUT WILL MENTION A SLIGHT RISK
IN THE HWO THIS EVG AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRY FCST BY 15Z/WEDS. THERE
IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHERN SASK S/W TROF MAY TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS OVER N WI DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT
COUNTING ON ENOUGH DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS TO PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT.

USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THE BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE
SETS FOR TEMPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SHOULD KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ALSO COULD
ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND WARM
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH. NEITHER OF THESE
TWO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN LACK
OF GULF MOISTURE OR STRONG FORCING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH AREA AT THIS TIME.
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE AT GRB AND ATW FOR FEW
HOURS AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD. MOISTURE FROM RAINS AND LIGHTER
WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS TOWARDS
MORNING....ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST THOUGH TOO UNCERTAIN TO ADD AT
THIS TIME.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE
MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDS MORNING... WITH GUSTS TO 15
TO 20 KTS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. &&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-072045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
332 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
TOMAHAWK TO GREEN BAY BETWEEN 9 PM AND 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...
AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THESE PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-072045-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
332 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE MARINE FOG MAY CAUSE NAVIGATION PROBLEMS FOR
MARINERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MORE
STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL POSE A HAZARD TO
BOATERS.

TSK/RDM

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