Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

ONGOING CONVECTION IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...FOLLOWED BY FROST POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED AS A SHORT WAVE MOVED INTO AN AREA
WITH SURFACE TO 1500M LAPSE RATES IN THE 8.5 TO 10 K/KM
RANGE...CAPES AROUND OR A LITTLE GREATER THAN 1000J/KG...LITTLE OR
NO CIN...AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO AROUND 50 KTS. THIS
CONVECTION WAS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AT 19Z.

ONCE THE SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AND SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR. WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR NORTH TO COOL OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY
FROST TO DEVELOP...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE CLOUDS
CLEAR THERE...AND NIGHTS ARE RATHER SHORT THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
THE SUMMER SOLSTICE ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY.

A COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND SURFACE FLOW
WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...SO DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IT
WILL BE COOLER IN MANY LOCATIONS THAN IT WAS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. FLOW WILL THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A
BLOCKING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WEAKENS AND ALLOWS
PACIFIC ENERGY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK/THIS
WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF WISCONSIN...BUT THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PROGRESS...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND
THE CHANCE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WERE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
FROM AROUND RHI TO MNM NORTHWARD AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS THAT
MOVED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DIED OFF OR MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WERE QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BETWEEN THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE LOW CLOUDS TO NORTH...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE
SURFACE TO 1.5KM ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MUCAPE VALUES WERE IN EXCESS OF 1000J/KG FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THOUGH THERE WAS SOME WEAK CIN IN EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND STRONGER CIN NEAR THE LAKE.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS/STORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR STORMS BY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/VFR CIGS AND VFR
VSBYS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH/MG
AVIATION.......MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
339 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-182045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
339 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-182045-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
339 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
GREATEST THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

DENSE MARINE FOG MAY DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS SOUTH WINDS
BRING HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION.

MG

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