Wind Advisory 9, NWS Goodland, KS

240 
WWUS73 KGLD 172056
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 PM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013



COZ091-092-KSZ001-013-027-172200-
/O.EXP.KGLD.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-130317T2100Z/
KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-WALLACE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...CHEYENNE WELLS...
ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND...SHARON SPRINGS
256 PM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013 /356 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND BRIEFLY GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FOG HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE AREA IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBILITIES ABOVE A QUARTER MILE EXCEPT RED WILLOW AND NORTON
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE FOR THOSE COUNTIES IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

MEANWHILE WINDS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER HAVE APPROACHED WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WARMER AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
THE AREAS THAT ARE COOLER FROM THE OVERCAST SKIES. AS THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE DISSIPATED THE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

AS OF 4 AM CST...3 AM MST....SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLOUDY. CIRRUS IS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH CLEARING
SKIES JUST TO THE WEST. ALSO...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG WITH THE STRATUS AS WELL. ALL THE
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH ONLY SOME DRIZZLE REMAINING
AS THE AIR HIGHER IN THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE THE 20S AND NEAR 30 IN SOME
LOCATIONS.WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. THE LONGER THE STRATUS HANGS AROUND...THE
LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 40S AS A RESULT OF
THE STRATUS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS UTAH
AND NEVADA. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS WERE
SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG...LIFTED INDEXES NEAR
0...LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8-10 C/KM...AND DCAPE OF 300
TO 700 J/KG POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IS POSSIBLE. HAVE LEFT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SINCE ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE WILL
BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE FORECAST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE...A DRY LINE MOVING IN FROM COLORADO AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ALL PUSH THROUGH. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AS
WELL...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT AND TRIED TO
REFLECT THAT IN THE FORECAST.

ON MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN
WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IS PARTIALLY MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED
A SECTION BELOW DETAILING THE POSSIBILITY.

CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
IN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
EITHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE CASE HAS BEEN
THE LAST FEW DAYS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN HOW
GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE DETAILS/SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE WITH GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND
FRONT. I WAS COMFORTABLE STAYING IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS POPS IN THE
30-50 RANGE...THOUGH WE WOULD STILL SEE SOME DEVIATION. ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HOLD COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE FRI WHILE GFS AND MOST GEFS
MEMBERS SHOW WAA IN THE WEST. THERE IS TOO MUCH SPREAD AND TOO
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION TO DEVIATE FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRI SHOULD BE COLDEST
DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK...AND CONSENSUS IS IN LINE WITH THIS WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH SPREAD IN TEMPS
AND THE DETAILS IN AMOUNTS IT HARD TO SAY WITH CONFIDENCE HOW MUCH
AND WHERE.

BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP COME TO AN END BY THE
END OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS TRYING TO
BUILD H5 RIDGE BACK OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ECMWF SHOWING
NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS LINGERING. HAVE KEPT MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECAST IN PLACE SHOWING A SLIGHT MODERATION FROM FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS INT EH LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIFR
CIGS AND VIS AT KMCK WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
COVERAGE...HAVE NOT PREVAILED TSRA AT TAF SITES BUT CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF VCTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
01-04Z...VEERING GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD BE MIXED
DOWN...LEADING TO WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MAIN
LINGERING QUESTION IS THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAY TODAY. THIS COULD KEEP DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UP JUST
ENOUGH SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...RRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1042 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013 /1142 AM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST OVER RED WILLOW...NORTON AND PARTS
OF DECATUR COUNTY UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...A THIN LAYER OF ICE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED ON
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

JTL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 AM MDT SUN MAR 17 2013

KSZ003-004-NEZ081-171800-
DECATUR-NORTON-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OBERLIN...NORTON...MCCOOK
1105 AM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

THE HALF TO QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES OVER NORTON...RED WILLOW AND
PARTS OF DECATUR COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY NOON OR
SHORTLY AFTER. A THIN LAYER OF ICE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED ON ELEVATED
SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.  USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

JTL