Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DRY LINE FAINTLY DETECTABLE ON KGLD RADAR AT 1745Z FROM NEAR ST
FRANCIS SOUTHWEST TO BURLINGTON AND THEN SOUTH TOWARDS CHEYENNE
WELLS. IT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MIXING EAST INTO KANSAS AND SHOULD
BE THE INITIATING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND STORMS WILL
QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS BEST FURTHER EAST FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT EVEN NEAR THE DRY
LINE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE AREA BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE ON SUNDAY...IN
FACT IN WESTERN AREAS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
FORECAST...BUT CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO PRIMARILY IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH HAIL UP TO THE
QUARTER SIZE THE MAIN THREAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD PROVIDING FOR BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND LIFT INCREASE AS A VORT
MAX OR SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN WHATS LOOKS LIKE A
MONSOON SEASON PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF UPPER LOW ALONG DRY LINE
GENERALLY EAST OF KGLD TERMINAL WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTH
WITHIN VICINITY OF KMCK. THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD IS
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO KMCK....THOUGH COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW
STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SHOULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISH AFTER 08Z...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KGLD...WITH MVFR (OR LOWER)
POSSIBLE AT KMCK IF A HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS OVER THE
TERMINAL. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KMCK
AS A RESULT OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC AS A RESULT OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
KGLD...AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK. STRONGEST WINDS AT KMCK SHOULD
BE AROUND 30KT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS...HOWEVER STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 50 KT+ WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE ADDING THESE MORE EXTREME VALUES TO
THE TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191415-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1038 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013 /1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) AS THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG AN
ADVANCING DRYLINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STORM INTENSITY DECREASING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             JENNINGS                39.68N 100.29W
05/18/2013  E1.75 INCH       DECATUR            KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN JENNINGS, KS.

&&

ALW

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