Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
906 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE CANCELLATION OF TORNADO WATCH 346.
TORNADO WATCH 347 CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ISSUANCE OF TWO TORNADO WATCHES.
TORNADO WATCH 346 TIL 05Z AND TORNADO WATCH 347 TIL 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
PARTLY CLOUDY. SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO
CONTINUE TO GIVE THE SKY A HAZY APPEARANCE AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S IN EAST COLORADO TO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S IN GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WAS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF ATWOOD...ST FRANCIS...GOODLAND AND COLBY KANSAS. A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WAS ALSO OBSERVED ON THE GLD WSR-88D RADAR.
THE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM HERNDON TO COLBY TO
RUSSELL SPRINGS TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WERE
OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WHILE WINDS WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY WERE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST. THE
MOVEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST. ACCORDING
TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...SURFACE CAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG...DCAPE OF
1600 TO 1800 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -7 TO -9...LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO
8 C/KM...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AND LCL HEIGHTS GREATER
THAN 2000 M AGL WOULD LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THE STORMS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WHERE SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGHER.

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART
BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60 LIKELY IN EAST COLORADO AND 60S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW...A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND
MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG ANOTHER CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OR
DRYLINE THAT WILL SET UP TO THE WEST. WITH CAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO
3500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -5 TO -7...LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 9 C/KM
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS LEAD ONE TO EXPECT THAT
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER WITH THE BEST
FORCING AND BETTER SHEAR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION INTO AN MCS IS
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...NEAR 90 IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT
BE A PROBLEM FOR TOMORROW AS DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD NOT
FILTER IN...LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...INITIAL CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE
POTENTIAL ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER CWA DURING THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD AND WITH
1500-2500 J/KG CAPE AND WEAK CINH THINK PROBABILITY OF STORMS MOVING
OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONTINUING ACROSS AREA IS INCREASING...WITH
12Z CYCLE OF MODELS ALSO LEANING IN THIS DIRECTION. WITH FAIRLY
CURVED HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
POSE A DECENT SEVERE THREAT AND BE RATHER ORGANIZED WHICH MAKES ME
THINK AN INCREASE IN PRECIP PROBABILITIES IS WARRANTED.
OTHERWISE...DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY. CINH REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AND WITH LACK OF
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT NOT REALLY CONFIDENT THAT FRONTAL SCALE FORCING
WOULD BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO ERODE CAP. HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL
WINDOW OF 15-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRAY STORM OR TWO BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED DRY LINE RESULTING IN
HUMIDITIES FALLING TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. WINDS ALSO
APPEAR TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHICH BRINGS
CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE
IN METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPROACHING WATCH THRESHOLDS...STATE OF
FUELS REMAINS IN QUESTION. WITH POTENTIAL WETTING RAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITION OF FUELS IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO WARRANT A WATCH FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

IN THE EXTENDED (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF
RIDGE AXIS DEVELOP PRETTY EARLY WITH GFS HAVING THE FARTHEST WEST
SOLUTION OF AVAILABLE DATA. GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWS THIS
CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS AND FOR THE TIME BEING I THINK SIDING WITH
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
IS FAIRLY HIGH. WHILE THERE WILL BE A FEW SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS
DURING THE PERIOD...NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD WITH HOT
AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

CURRENT FOCUS FOR TAFS WILL BE THE TSTORMS THAT ARE FIRING ALONG A
BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW TO NE WHICH KMCK LIES ON AND IS E OF KGLD.
TSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ARE MOVING NNE SO INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO INCLUDE TSTORMS FOR KMCK FOR 00Z TO 02Z. AT THE CURRENT
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TSTORMS WILL REMAIN E OF KGLD SO LEFT OUT A
TEMPO GROUP BUT INCLUDED VCTS. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARY...MAY NEED TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP LATER.

TSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER KMCK WILL DIE DOWN OVERNIGHT AND KGLD WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE N AROUND 08Z FOR KGLD AND AROUND 09Z FOR KMCK. BOTH SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BRIEFLY CHANGING CONDITIONS DUE TO TSTORMS TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON
HOW THEY DEVELOP AND PROGRESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...ALW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231715-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
243 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013 /343 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA AND IDALIA
COLORADO TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE COMBINATION OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WALLACE...GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WRAY COLORADO TO GOODLAND
AND LEOTI KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
711 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

KSZ003-230200-
DECATUR-
811 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DECATUR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 807 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OBERLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

  LOCATIONS AND TIMES OF ARRIVAL INCLUDE...
  OBERLIN BY 830 PM CDT...
  6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRAER BY 840 PM CDT...

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3989 10030 3959 10054 3965 10074 4000 10074
      4000 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 211DEG 20KT 3975 10066

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
717 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

KSZ028-230200-
LOGAN-
817 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 816 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF RUSSELL SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  LOCATIONS AND TIMES OF ARRIVAL INCLUDE...
  WINONA BY 855 PM CDT...

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3894 10149 3914 10135 3914 10130 3892 10089
      3870 10117 3870 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 213DEG 16KT 3889 10133

LOCKHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
847 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

COZ090-NEZ079-230230-
DUNDY-YUMA COUNTY-
747 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND DUNDY
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 744 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF CLARKVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

  LOCATIONS AND TIMES OF ARRIVAL INCLUDE...
  RURAL YUMA COUNTY AT 800 PM MDT

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10204 4036 10204 4035 10195 4018 10191
      4016 10242 4044 10254 4045 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 253DEG 29KT 4038 10240

LOCKHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
801 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND GST     OAKLEY                  39.13N 100.85W
06/22/2013  M70 MPH          LOGAN              KS   MESONET

            MESONET MEASURED 70 MPH WIND GUST

&&

ALW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
909 PM MDT SAT JUN 22 2013

NEZ079-080-230400-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-
1009 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND HITCHCOCK
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 1008 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF MAX...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  LOCATIONS AND TIMES OF ARRIVAL INCLUDE...
  PALISADE BY 1055 PM CDT...

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4002 10085 4001 10168 4035 10164 4036 10162
      4035 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0309Z 248DEG 23KT 4023 10145

LOCKHART