Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NEW
DATA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE LINE OF
STORMS WILL LAST...AND WHAT INTERACTION WITH THE WESTWARD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE LINE OF STORMS.
AT THIS TIME AM ANTICIPATING THE STORMS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO SUBSIDENCE.
MODELS ARE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN FIRING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
COLORADO. THE OUTPUT LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...BUT BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP. CHANCES GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UNCERTAINTIES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON FORMED ON A LINGERING SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE WHICH RAN
FROM NORTHEAST OF MCCOOK TO NORTON AND THEN EAST ALONG HIGHWAY
36...LIKELY LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF DENVER AND
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEAN
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG...ABOUT 15 KTS...SO STORMS MAY TAKE
THEIR TIME GETTING INTO OUR COLORADO COUNTIES.  ANY STORMS WHICH
MAKE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LARGE
HAIL. STRONGER WINDS AT 300 MB WORKING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO MAY
HELP THE STORMS SOUTH OF I-70 SURVIVE LONGER AND MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS THEY WORK TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW BUT H8-7 LAYER MEAN MOISTURE IS DRY AND
TRENDING DRIER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, H7 TEMPERATURES
WARM TO 14 C. FOR THESE REASONS HAVE DECIDED TO PULL SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAKE
IF DIFFICULT FOR ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE IS
MARGINALLY BETTER.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH 70 IN THE
FAR EAST ZONES.  850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 TO 33 DEGREES WILL
SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY BECOMING ZONAL ON TUESDAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES COME
THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM 15-17
DEGREES C EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SATURDAY AND MONDAY
WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. FRIDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA TO
AROUND 70 IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. A SOMEWHAT TRICKY
FORECAST FOR KGLD FOR THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
EAST THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL LAST. AM
ANTICIPATING THEM TO BE THROUGH KGLD BY THE END OF THE EVENING.
WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT GUSTY WHEN THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. FOR KMCK
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY HAVE CAUSED THE
WINDS TO BE MORE EASTERLY. AM ANTICIPATING THE WINDS TO TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KMCK TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
220 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013 /320 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
THROUGH 5 PM CDT. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME STORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FURTHER WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE COLORADO PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORM MOVEMENT IN
COLORADO WILL BE TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE DURING THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THOSE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES...AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO.

DLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ004-016-182045-
GRAHAM-NORTON-
311 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND GRAHAM
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EDMOND TO DENSMORE
TO LOGAN...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3940 9997 3971 10003 3971 9973 3970 9962
      3957 9962 3956 9960 3940 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 351DEG 13KT 3962 9989 3962 9971
          3960 9951

HUSTED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ016-182115-
GRAHAM-
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 338 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF
LOGAN TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF DENSMORE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF EDMOND...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3929 9965 3929 9993 3957 9999 3957 9961
      3956 9960 3946 9959 3930 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 351DEG 14KT 3953 9955 3952 9970
          3952 9986

HUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
325 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     HAIL             2 SW BOGUE              39.34N 99.72W
06/18/2013  E0.75 INCH       GRAHAM             KS   PUBLIC

            STARTED OUT AS PEA SIZE HAIL AND INCREASED TO DIME SIZE

&&

ALW

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
511 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

KSZ029-182345-
GOVE-
611 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 610 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF COLLYER...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF QUINTER...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10016 3869 10037 3870 10037 3902 10025
      3902 10014 3870 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 008DEG 20KT 3891 10015

HUSTED