Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Goodland, KS

283 
WWUS53 KGLD 300004
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
604 PM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

KSC071-203-300014-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130330T0030Z/
GREELEY KS-WICHITA KS-
604 PM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN WICHITA AND EASTERN
GREELEY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3859 10190 3868 10178 3870 10137 3833 10128
      3830 10183
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 307DEG 19KT 3847 10162
$$

MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES...BUT MORE
SPECIFICALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...DURING THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WHICH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING
FAIRLY STATIONARY. ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST FOLLOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40
KTS AND UP TO 1000 J/K OF SURFACE CAPE TO WORK WITH...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL UNDER AN INCH AND STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING THE 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED THUNDERSTORMS
TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH LINGERS NEAR THE CO BORDER. WITH LIFT AND INSTABILITY
INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
EVENING...AM THINKING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH A
PEAK NEAR MID EVENING. AROUND MIDNIGHT THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
LIFT BEGINS TO DIMINISH AND THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS A 850MB TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  BEHIND THE TROUGH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

SATURDAY A MORE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND SURFACE BASED CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG...AM ONLY
ANTICIPATING ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE AT BEST CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 24.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION/PHASE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SECONDARY ISSUES WILL BE HOW WARM IT GETS
THIS WEEKEND AND HOW MUCH IT COOLS OFF ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS A
RATHER AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CURRENTLY
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS CURRENTLY LEAVES THE AREA IN A WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH IT. LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN.

BASED ON SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS MODEL ARE HAVING A LITTLE
TROUBLE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WITH THE UPPER LOW WEST OF
CALIFORNIA. THE CANADIAN...UKMET AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST. THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE PATTERN. GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE SREF AND
NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

SATURDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO PER DISCUSSION ABOVE...WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS. MODELS SHOW AN
INVERTED V SOUNDING AND WOULD EXPECT VERY LITTLE OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. BY LATE IN THE EVENING
SUBSIDENCE WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER NIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING THIS PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST AND MODEL SOLUTIONS DECREASES. MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF
INCOMING FRONT ALTHOUGH THEY LOOK TO BE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL
HAVE SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN ADVANCE. WOULD EXPECT TO BE PRETTY WARM
WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION THE COOLEST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
FRONTAL TIMING WAS CONSERVATIVE IN THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP.

AGAIN THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED V SOUNDING IN PLACE. DRY LAYER IS
LARGER THAN SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME INSERTED SPRINKLES INTO THE
FORECAST. WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD/HOW FAST TO COOL IT
OFF AND THE SOUNDING PROFILE OVERALL. THEY RANGE FROM A VERY COLD/ALL
SNOW TYPE SOUNDING...TO ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE THEN TO THE PHASE
STAYING ALL RAIN.

AT THE SAME TIME HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC LIFT IS IN
PLACE WITH DISORGANIZED MESOSCALE LIFT IN PLACE. FAVORABLE THETA-E
LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE SO THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT RESPONSE TO
WHATEVER LIFT COMES THROUGH. BASED ON THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BELIEVE WILL NOT HAVE A VERY DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE. AT THE SAME
TIME...THINK THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE
ADVECTION IN PLACE. THERE MAY BE A BURST OF PRECIPITATION INITIALLY
WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. WITH THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND DISORGANIZED LIFT...BELIEVE WHATEVER DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT AND
DID NOT HAVE POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF. WITH THE MIN TEMPERATURES BLENDED BETWEEN THE
WARMEST AND COLDEST SOLUTIONS.

MONDAY...SAME REASONING APPLIES TO THIS PERIOD. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. PHASE WILL PROBABLY BE ALL SNOW BUT IF PRECIPITATION HANGS
ON LONG ENOUGH IT MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE BACK TO RAIN. THERE IS A
HUGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECAST MAXES...ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15
DEGREES. BELIEVING THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TOWARD THE
WARMER SIDE WITH MORE SUN AND LESS PRECIPITATION THAN WHAT THE MODELS
THINK THERE IS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE BEGINNING
OF THIS PERIOD REMAINS LOW AS WELL. THE GFS TRENDED FASTER AND THE
00Z ECMWF TRENDED SLOWER. IT ALSO TRENDED FURTHER NORTH. INITIALLY
THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE SLOWER ECMWF BUT ALSO SUPPORT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN IT WHICH IS WHAT THE CANADIAN IS SHOWING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK THE 00Z ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER. THE 12Z ECMWF BASICALLY KEPT THE
SAME SOLUTION EXCEPT NOW IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN BEFORE WHICH IS
FITTING WITH THE TRENDS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. NO MATTER
WHICH SOLUTION...IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE DRY. ALSO A WARMING
TREND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AFTER THE COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. PER THE
REASONING ABOVE...WHAT THE CRH INIT GAVE ME WAS REASONABLE AND DID
NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES.

THANKS TO ALL FOR THE COLLABORATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FIRE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
THE CO BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. DIFFICULT TO
HAVE A MORE SPECIFIC WINDOW FOR STORMS MOVING OVER THE SITES DUE TO
THE RATHER BROAD FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONCE STORMS MOVE OVER/DEVELOP NEAR KMCK...THEY MAY LINGER THERE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING SO A TEMPO GROUP MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AROUND KGLD...AM THINKING IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST.
BEHIND THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE STABLE AND WINDS
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
954 AM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
954 AM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013 /1054 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A TROUGH
OF LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL LESS THAN AN INCH AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY EVENING THAT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW
BY MONDAY MORNING. MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

JTL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 PM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

KSZ027-041-292315-
GREELEY-WALLACE-
455 PM MDT FRI MAR 29 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 451 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF WESKAN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 10205 3878 10203 3880 10170 3852 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 276DEG 11KT 3868 10193

MARTIN