Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING STORMS FIRING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG AND 30KTS SHEAR. EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND DUE TO HIGH BASED STORMS. STEERING WIND WILL
MOVE STORMS EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS SINCE STORMS ARE ALREADY IN
PROGRESS MOVING EAST. FOR MONDAY STORMS WILL FIRE AGAIN OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AS THE NEXT IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. STEERING WIND WILL TAKE
THEM EAST SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE MID 80S MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S IN
THE NORTHWEST FA NEAR INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.

STRATUS WAS VERY MARGINAL AT BEST IN THE NORTHEAST FA EVEN THOUGH
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH ABOVE 90 PERCENT WAS WIDESPREAD. TREND IS FOR
A SMALLER AREA OF HIGH RH TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE OUT ANY CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
NAM/GFS SHOWING AREA OF STRONG THETA-E CONVERGENCE AFTER 03Z WITH
GUIDANCE FAVORING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
INCREASES. IN FACT...100 PERCENT OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW AT
LEAST 0.05 QPF OVER OUR ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z. I BUMPED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY...AND COULD SEE INCREASING THEM FURTHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THIS EVENT. I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
TRAINING/BACKWARDS PROPAGATION ALONG FRONT AS IT LIFTS DURING THE
EVENING WITH VERY WEAK 0-6KM FLOW (5-10KT) PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. H3
JET IS ALMOST PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT WITH H85 FLOW INBOUND.
SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR SATURATED THROUGH THE LAYER BY 06Z...WITH PWAT
VALUES OVER ONE INCH AND TALL SKINNY CAPE INDICATIVE OF EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS PLAYS OUT WE COULD SEE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING. TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES
WITH FRONTAL POSITION COMPLICATE THINGS...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT
THERE TO GO WITH A WATCH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH THESE PERIODS...AND WEAK SHORTWAVES/VORT
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MEANS LITTLE
WILL CHANGE WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING. I KEPT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT PERIODS WHEN BEST FORCING IS ADVERTISED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SW FLOW BUILDS DEVELOPS OVER
OUR CWA. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO THE REGION...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. MODELS INDICATE DRY LINE SETTING UP OVER
OUR CWA WITH 50/LOW 60S TD VALUES ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA FRI. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FEATURE. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FAR NORTH FRI/FRI NIGHT WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SHOW LIGHT QPF.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGES REGARDING OVERALL PATTERN WITH SW
FLOW ALOFT AND DRY LINE IN PLACE. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE BETTER
FORCING WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. I KEPT
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY. THIS ALSO FAVORS OUR NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN. DESPITE COLD FRONT WE SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOCUS FOR TAFS ARE CURRENT STORMS...WITH ONE OVER KGLD NOW AND
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MOVING INTO KMCK. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED WITH THE TSTORM AND VISIBILITY HAS ALREADY BEEN REDUCED
AT KGLD WITH THE TSTORM SO INCLUDED WIND GUSTS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE TEMPO GROUP. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF KGLD
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS MOVING INTO KMCK ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL COULD AFFECT KMCK IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BEHIND THIS LINE MOVING THROUGH CURRENTLY SO
WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KMCK.

ONCE THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES AND END AROUND 04Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT AT BOTH SITES
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG FOR THIS
TAF ISSUANCE. TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT LEFT VCTS OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...ALW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
306 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
306 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013 /406 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. DURING THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

KSZ001-002-170000-
CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND CHEYENNE
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 628 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER BIRD CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR MCDONALD AROUND 635 PM CDT.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING
AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE A VEHICLE ON A FLOODED ROADWAY.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3958 10114 3957 10156 3980 10168 3986 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 329DEG 36KT 3976 10151

THEDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             6 W ATWOOD              39.81N 101.15W
06/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT
            50 TO 60 MPH. VISIBILITY WAS ALSO REDUCED TO NEAR 0SM.

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
551 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W ATWOOD              39.81N 101.15W
06/16/2013  E60 MPH          RAWLINS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             6 W ATWOOD              39.81N 101.15W
06/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT
            50 TO 60 MPH. VISIBILITY WAS ALSO REDUCED TO NEAR 0.

&&

ALW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N ATWOOD              39.87N 101.05W
06/16/2013  M68 MPH          RAWLINS            KS   MESONET

&&

DTHEDE