Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST UTAH TONIGHT AND THE 4-CORNERS
REGION TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. CURRENT RADAR DETECTING STORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. STORMS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SETS
IN BY 03Z WITH SEVERE THREAT ENDING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
RATHER QUICKLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE DRY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN FACT, THERE
MAY BE MORE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING ELSE UNTIL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE SOUNDING SATURATES WITH ICE.  SNOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FA IN EARNEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW CHANCES WILL
DECREASE SOME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND
FINALLY END DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE EVENT
WILL RANGE FROM 4-7 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF YUMA COUNTY
COLORADO WITH 1-3 INCHES WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO
CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO. AMOUNTS EAST OF THAT LINE WILL RANGE UP TO
AN INCH. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH AMOUNTS IN YUMA COUNTY AND STRONG WIND
WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THAT COUNTY. AMOUNTS UP TO 3
INCHES AND WIND WILL FAVOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER DUNDY
COUNTY NEBRASKA AND CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS. STRONG WIND WITH THE
FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OTHER ZONES FOR
TUESDAY. SEE DETAILS BELOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE GFS/NAM BOTH
INDICATED SOME LIGHT QPF FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD BUT LEFT
THAT OUT FOR NOW SINCE THE MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FA.
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 40S TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S MODERATING TO
THE MID 40S THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH DURING THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. THE FIRST WAVE COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE SECOND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AND DYNAMICS
ARE WEAK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE BUT SINCE IT IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT
WILL HOLD TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD WORK FOR
THE FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM AS WELL.

MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S. A WARMING
TREND WILL MODERATE LOWS FROM THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
UPPER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50S WARMING TO THE 60S SATURDAY AND CONTINUING IN THE 60S
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT MON APR 8 2013

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT MCK AND GLD DEGRADING
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE. ANY STORMS
THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL WILL LOWER VIS FOR A SHORT TIME AND
PROBABLY INCLUDE HAIL. BEHIND THE STORMS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH BRINGING WITH IT RAIN AND BREEZY WIND. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. NORTH WINDS OF 30KTS GUSTING UP
TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL AS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY TOMORROW...MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR KSZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 7 PM MDT
     /8 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
     COZ091-092.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR COZ090.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ079.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

SHORT TERM...FS/JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091700-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
305 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013 /405 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24 IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEVERE
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT CAUSING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY
27.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TUESDAY PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LEOTI TO OBERLIN AND MCCOOK LINE. DURING THE
AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...WITH ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 40 MPH...WHICH WILL CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. PLEASE DIRECT ANY STORM REPORTS TO THE WEATHER OFFICE IN GOODLAND.

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
322 PM MDT MON APR 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             6 N WILD HORSE          38.91N 103.00W
04/08/2013  E0.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PEA TO JUST UNDER DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED. BRIEF DURATION

&&

JMARTIN