River Flood Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE AS A COMPLEX AND
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS IN PLACE. COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING UPPER HAS MOVED INTO
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THIS MAIN SYSTEM. AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.
PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

AT JET LEVEL...THE CANADIAN AND THE UKMET INITIALIZED BEST ON THE
JET THAT IS OVER/NEAR OUR AREA. AT MID LEVELS...SATELLITE AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FOLLOWED BY THE GFS ARE
HANDLING CURRENT SYSTEM THE BEST. SREF AND RUC WERE DOING BEST AT
THE SURFACE.

COMPLICATED AND DIFFICULT PRECIPITATION FORECAST MADE MORE DIFFICULT
BY THE FACT THAT MOST IF NOT ALL THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS CURRENT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TOO FAR SOUTH AND IS BASICALLY IGNORING IT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET REMAINS
OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE MORE
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST TO MOVE THIS SEGMENT EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
GENERAL TREND IS TO HAVE THIS SLOWER/FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS. THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS DO NOT TAKE THIS RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...LATEST ECMWF IS CATCHING THE POSITION
AND COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE BEST. CONSIDERING THE
POSITION OF THE 700 MB LOW CIRCULATION...MODELS INDICATING WARM
ADVECTION/UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF IT...PLUS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
INDICATED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BELIEVE THE CURRENT
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP AND MAINLY AFFECT
THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST AREA FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. GREELEY AND WALLACE
COUNTIES APPEAR TO BE ON THE EDGE THIS AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
BOTH OF THOSE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY WALLACE...GOT AT LEAST 2 TO 5
INCHES OF RAINFALL LAST. SO BELIEVE CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO DID
NOT RECEIVE A LOT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DO NOT EXPECT IT TODAY...
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. KEPT THE REMAINDER IN THE
WATCH AND EXTENDED IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR WEST TO BRING THE PRECIPITATION. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION AND THE HRRR INDICATING
THE SAME IDEA. VERY INTERESTING OCCURRENCE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THIS IS TAKING PLACE. SO KEPT
HIGHER POPS FURTHER WEST AS A RESULT. OVERALL...IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT
AND IT IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS...THIS RAINFALL...EVEN AFTER THE
INTENSITY LETS UP...WILL BE SLOW TO END AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DO SO
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. DID NOT INSERT AT THIS TIME BUT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF RAIN QUITS SOONER AND CLEARING CAN OCCUR.

LOWERED MAXES TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED PRECIPITATION AND THICK CLOUD
COVER.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...INTEREST PATTERN CONTINUES. THE ECMWF SHOWING
IT MORE BUT ALSO INDICATED BY THE OTHER MODELS AND GEFS OUTPUT...
MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR TO OVER THE AREA WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE
A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LEFT. ALSO A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A
SOUTHERN JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHEAST HALF...BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS CONTINUES TO AFFECT
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF...THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT.
SO INSERTED POPS WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND UNFAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS...TRENDED
MAXES DOWN A LITTLE. IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR AND WITH THE MOIST
AIR MASS AND WET GROUND IN PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG
DEVELOP.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE JET STRUCTURE
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OR MOST OF THE AREA
COULD GET LIFT FROM THE JET IN THE AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES A
LITTLE EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING.
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE FAR WEST. SO PUT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST.

ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALONG WITH INCREASING JET LIFT COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOST OF THE AREA. SO PULLED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER EAST DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013

UPPER PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE FROM AN ELONGATED
EAST-WEST UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO A HIGH CENTERED OVER
NEW MEXICO AND A SUBSEQUENT GRADUAL BUILDING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...UPPER LOWS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF
THE PAC NW COAST AND NEAR JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND
RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE ROCKIES RIDGE...PROVIDING A FEW
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEK AS THEY EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS.

CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME WILL PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND THIS IS
INDICATED WITH 30-40 POPS COMPARED TO 20 POPS ON REMAINING DAYS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SURFACE CANADIAN AIRMASS DOWN NEXT
WEEK SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013

COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN SET OF TAFS. MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN POOR
TONIGHT WITH THE HRRR FINALLY HAVING SOME GLIMMER AS TO WHAT
REALITY IS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO BE AT
KGLD. AT KGLD HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS. HOWEVER THAT MAY
LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING OF PRECIPITATION. AS IT STANDS NOW IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AT KGLD. RAINFALL
ENDS AT KGLD BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH FOG THEN
DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCK UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
414 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2013 /514 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
LAST NIGHT. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BULLER

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