Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Goodland, KS

108 
WWUS83 KGLD 272059
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2013

COZ253-254-KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042-272200-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-130628T0100Z/
KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-
LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
259 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2013 /359 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 013...014
...015...016...027...028...029...041...042...253 AND 254...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYED HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. THEREFORE EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2013

THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BECOMING NORTH NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AND EVEN MORE
NORTHERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERAL POORLY DISCERNED WAVES
ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER THAT
RETROGRADES MORE WESTERLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THE VORTICITY MAXES
SHOWING UP IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ARTIFACTS THAT STAY CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COOLER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY FOR SOME MINOR MODERATION OF
HOT TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION...BUT WILL BE LACKING A GOOD GULF CONNECTION NEEDED FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT THAT PUSHES UP ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE APPEARS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...PROVIDING A NEAR SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT TO FOCUS ON. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  ADDITIONAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
BACK UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2013

INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GUIDANCE
COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE THAT OF A
STRENGTHENING AND INCREASING AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TRANSITIONING TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY DRIFTS WEST TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE
SPECIFICS ACROSS MODELS DIFFER...THE GENERAL THEME IS A
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE RIDGE
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY ENHANCE STORMS TRIGGERED OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CLEAR...THOUGH
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TRIGGERED BY
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW OUT EAST WILL HAVE DRIFTED WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH TRIGGERED WHAT LOOKS TO BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
BRINGING COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND IT. SOME GOOD NEWS WITH
THIS PATTERN NO MATTER HOW THE PRECIP UNFOLDS IS THAT THERE WILL BE
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD THANKS TO SOMEWHAT MOIST
AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ AND OVERALL WEAK WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH GLD
AND MCK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE EAST AND
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 07Z AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1051 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2013 /1151 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO HILL CITY. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WILL
MAKE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BULLER