Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Goodland, KS

037 
WWUS83 KGLD 141150
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

KSZ027-141300-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0014.130614T1800Z-130615T0200Z/
WALLACE-
550 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 027...028...029...041 AND 042...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COUNTY.

$$

KSZ028-029-041-042-142000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0014.130614T1800Z-130615T0200Z/
LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
550 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013 /650 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/
TODAY TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 027...028...029...
041 AND 042...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 028 LOGAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 029 GOVE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY AND FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 042 WICHITA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 18 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT ARE STARTED MAY QUICKLY BECOME OUT OF 
  CONTROL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

BULLER

326 
WWUS83 KGLD 142017
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

KSZ028-029-041-042-150200-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130615T0200Z/
LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
217 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013 /317 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 028...029...041 AND 042...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 028 LOGAN...FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 029 GOVE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY AND FIRE 
  WEATHER ZONE 042 WICHITA.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 16 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT ARE STARTED MAY QUICKLY BECOME OUT OF 
  CONTROL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

571 
WWUS83 KGLD 150001
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
601 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY...

A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE COUNTIES THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY
IN THE RED FLAG WARNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO
INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER BEING MET AND WILL NOT BE MET THE
REST OF THIS EVENING.

KSZ028-029-041-042-150115-
/O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130615T0200Z/
LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
601 PM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013 /701 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 028...029...041 AND 042...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THEY PRODUCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE SECONDARY CONCERN
OF TODAYS FIRE WEATHER. BOTH OF THESE ARE DEPENDENT ON WHERE
BOUNDARIES END UP. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN GETS COMPLICATED
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE ALSO
APPEARS TO BE A TAP OF MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE
AT MID LEVELS. WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH...THEY HAD
THE SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST. THAT ALSO THE CASE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. OVERALL THE CANADIAN/UKMET
FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF WERE THE LEAST OFFENSIVE OF THE MODEL SUITE.
NOT ACCOUNTING FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. AT THIS
TIME SREF AND GFS WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
MODELS TENDED TO HAVE THE QPF TOO FAR SOUTH AT 06Z. ALTHOUGH ITS
AMOUNTS APPEAR OVERDONE...THE GFS DOES PRETTY WELL WITH THE AREA.

VERY COMPLEX PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH MODELS DEPICTING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS AS TO WHERE THE VARIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES END UP. ALSO
THIS ALSO COULD BE CHANGED AT ANY TIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS DECIDE TO
DEVELOP. ALSO COMPLEX INTERACTION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MAKES
THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND OVERALL OUTCOME OF THIS FORECAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EARLY TENDENCY WAS TO HAVE THE FRONT THAT IS GOING TO
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO BE
FURTHER NORTH. THE BETTER PERFORMING MODELS AT THE SURFACE WERE THE
BEST INDICATORS OF THIS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. ALSO SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST HALF AS WELL. SO AS A RESULT...PULLED THE
HIGHER POPS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THAT THE STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PERPENDICULAR
TO THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD
GET A LOT OF RAINFALL. FRONTAL POSITION AND WHEN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES. IN GENERAL
KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME TO A LITTLE COOLER. LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT LOOK TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. REFER TO THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM DURING THE MORNING. THEN IT LOOKS
LIKE THE AREA MAY STAY QUIET/DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONE
CAVEAT TO THIS IS ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT MAY CAUSE EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT. AS IT STANDS NOW...DESPITE BEING PRETTY UNSTABLE...THE
MID AND UPPER LIFT DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE NIGHT.

RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET LOOKS CLOSE OR OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS
JET LIFT REMAINS OR GETS STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATER HALF OF
THE NIGHT. ALSO FRONT IS HUNG UP SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLE COULD BE MADE EVEN
HIGHER. CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND SLOWER STORM MOVEMENT. DEPENDING ON IF THE
STORM MOVEMENT IS FAVORABLE TO THE FRONT...COULD EVEN ENHANCE THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE THREAT AS WELL.

COOLER AIR MASS MAY BE IN PLACE...EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT I
HAVE IT. THAT COMBINED WITH AN UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD FOR A BIG
WARMUP...LOWERED MAXES SOME.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME KIND OF JET LIFT REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WITH MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. THAT
COMBINED WITH AN UNCERTAIN BOUNDARY POSITION...MAKES IT VERY HARD TO
PIN DOWN A FAVORED AREA. ALTHOUGH AT FACE VALUE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE BEST CHANCE. LATEST MODEL DATA
SUPPORTED THE POP FORECAST AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
LED ME TO NOT CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED. LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
AROUND WILL MAKE FOR COOLER MAXES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM MDT FRI JUN 14 2013

LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM. AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY.

THE MEAN POSITION OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT...ALBEIT NOT AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS
DAYS. WITH SUBTLE FORCING FROM WEAK TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE...LEE SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED AND DRYLINE SHARPENS. A STRONG CAPPING EML MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. GFS
AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OR TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AND WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO MORE SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER. THUS POPS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE CURRENT DAY SEVEN
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION....(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONLY CONCERN FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE FOR BLOWING DUST AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
LOWERING VISIBILITIES.

SCENARIO FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SET UP
FROM KNRN THROUGH KCBK TO KGLD TO JUST SOUTH OF KITR AFTER 21Z.
A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR KGLD FROM 22Z
THROUGH 06Z AND 23Z-06Z AT KMCK. INVERTED-V PROFILES SUGGEST WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 22Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT

TOUGH CALL TODAY ON WHERE TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED
FLAG WARNING. IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
MOVES. EARLY ON IN THE SOUTH THE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH
GETS CLOSER THE WINDS DECREASE AS DO THE DEWPOINTS. IT COULD BE
CLOSE TO IF THREE HOURS OF CRITERIA WILL BE FULFILLED. ALSO
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. SO BASED ON MY BEST IDEA OF WHERE THE FRONT IS GOING TO
BE...CHOSE TO CANCEL THE WATCH FOR SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...AND WALLACE
AND UPGRADE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
    /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...DDT
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
850 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
850 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2013 /950 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.