Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Goodland, KS

520 
WWUS83 KGLD 111849
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1149 AM MST FRI JAN 11 2013

COZ254-KSZ027-041-042-120000-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130112T0000Z/
CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
1149 AM MST FRI JAN 11 2013 /1249 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 027...041...042 AND 254...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE 
  CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE...FIRE WEATHER 
  ZONE 041 GREELEY AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 042 WICHITA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
  BEGIN AROUND 11 AM MST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
  DAY. 

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 40S.

* IMPACTS...ITS IMPORTANT TO KNOW THAT A WIND SHIFT TO THE 
  NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND SUNSET WHICH WILL ALTER THE 
  MOVEMENT OF ANY FIRE...SHOULD ANY DEVELOP. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

008 
WWUS83 KGLD 112358
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
458 PM MST FRI JAN 11 2013


COZ254-KSZ027-041-042-120100-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130112T0000Z/
CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
458 PM MST FRI JAN 11 2013 /558 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 027...041...042 AND 254...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE CRITICAL RED FLAG
LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MST FRI JAN 11 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM MST THU JAN 10 2013

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. IT IS POSSIBLE MORE COUNTIES
COULD BE ADDED TONIGHT IF DENSE FOG REDEVELOPS IN AREAS FURTHER
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MST THU JAN 10 2013

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT TAKING THE
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE
OUT...AND MAY CARRY SOME MENTION OF FOG IN EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TOWARDS SOUTHWEST AND TAKE ON A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...REMAINING FOG/CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY SCOUR OUT. STRONG JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE NEXT SYSTEM
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. MIXED
LAYER WINDS YIELD WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS BASICALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SO CONTINUED WITH THE HIGH WIND WATCH.
MODELS HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO...BUT WITH DRY LOWER LAYERS THINK IT WILL BE
VIRGA. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER...FORECAST RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO 15
PERCENT IN AREA UNDER THE HIGH WIND WATCH. DESPITE RECENT SNOW
PACK AND TODAYS LIGHT PRECIPITATION...FUELS ARE APPARENTLY
SUFFICIENT SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MST FRI JAN 11 2013

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN
PERSISTENT. AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS MIDNIGHT DISCUSSION...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL STILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVES FARTHER
SOUTH...KEEPING ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE KEY MODEL DIFFERENCE THAT REMAINS IS WILL ANY PIECE OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH CUT OFF AND BECOME AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS THE ONLY SOLUTION THAT
DEPICTS THIS...HOWEVER THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN
FORECASTING THIS SOLUTION. IF THIS HAPPENS...THE MAIN EFFECT IT WILL
HAVE ON THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
LIMITING THE BIG WARM-UP FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER
WAY...THE CUT OFF LOW...IF IT DEVELOPS...WILL STAY WAY TOO FAR SOUTH
TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION OUR WAY. BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND FORCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW TO THE EAST.
CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF QUITE COOL...BUT AS
MENTIONED ABOVE A BIG WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. FOR MONDAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 10. THE BEGINNINGS OF THE WARM-UP
WILL START TO BE SEEN ON TUESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 30S. BY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT 50S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF POSSIBLE CLOUD
COVER AND 3-5 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO HIGHER. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF
NEXT WEEK ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST THU JAN 10 2013

CURRENT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWING WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS/FOG
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE SOON AT
KGLD AND CLOSER TO SUNRISE AT KMCK. CONSEQUENTLY LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THE STRATUS AND FOG
MOVE OUT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AT KGLD AFTER
SUNRISE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ004-016.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR KSZ001>004-015-016-029.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5
     PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013-014-027-028-041-
     042.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR COZ090.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ091-092.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...032

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
112 PM MST THU JAN 10 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111730-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
112 PM MST THU JAN 10 2013 /212 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER OF A MILE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON FRIDAY.
A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH FOR AREAS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE WELLS
COLORADO TO WESKAN AND LEOTI KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.