High Wind Warning 4, NWS Goodland, KS

757 
WWUS73 KGLD 240103
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
703 PM MDT MON SEP 23 2013

COZ091-092-KSZ013-027-028-041-042-240215-
/O.EXP.KGLD.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130924T0100Z/
/O.EXP.KGLD.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-130924T0100Z/
KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-SHERMAN-WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...CHEYENNE WELLS...
GOODLAND...SHARON SPRINGS...OAKLEY...TRIBUNE...LEOTI
703 PM MDT MON SEP 23 2013 /803 PM CDT MON SEP 23 2013/

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...
...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

$$

COZ090-KSZ001-014-240215-
/O.EXP.KGLD.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-130924T0100Z/
YUMA-CHEYENNE KS-THOMAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...ST. FRANCIS...COLBY
703 PM MDT MON SEP 23 2013 /803 PM CDT MON SEP 23 2013/

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1153 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER BY SUNRISE THEN INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 00Z TUESDAY THEN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING EAST THROUGH NOON. ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS
WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CONTINUING
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH LOW
TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE. AREAS ACROSS THE EAST WILL HAVE THEIR HIGHS BY
NOON OR SO BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN
1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE LOW 50S EXPECTED.

ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A FEW AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM BASED OFF THE NAM
SUGGESTING GUSTS AROUND 41KTS AT KGLD AND KITR AROUND 21Z WITH AREAS
IN THE YUMA AND FLAGLER AREAS AROUND 18Z OR SO. DESPITE WEAK LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE IS GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION AND OK 3 HOUR
PRESSURE RISES. PERHAPS THE STRONGER WINDS COULD GET MIXED DOWN THE
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLITES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND DRY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TUESDAY MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND PERHAPS WINDY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES OFF THE FRONT
RANGE AND INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 70S...WARMING INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT UPPER 40S WEST AND NEAR MCCOOK WITH AROUND 50
ELSEWHERE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2013

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS IS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF KANSAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH THIS AREA HAVING THE
BEST INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND SHEAR. SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A STRONG JET STREAK OVER THE CWA AND VORTICITY
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WANES AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES EAST...SO JUST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S IN THE EASTERN CWA ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
DUE TO PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS SEEM TO SLIGHTLY DISAGREE
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED. THE GFS HAS A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND EXTENDING INTO THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE CWA BETWEEN
FEATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD DRY AS
NO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER FLOW. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND
DRY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS WARMING UP ON SUNDAY INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2013

UPPER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO KGLD
AND KMCK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT BY EVENING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT MON SEP 23 2013 /1145 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.