Frost Advisory 3, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 PM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WAS SET UP
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION...LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO
OAKLEY KANSAS TO MARIENTHAL KANSAS. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 55 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AS
THE FRONT HAS EXPANDED IN SIZE AND MOVED EAST...WIND SPEEDS HAVE
COME DOWN. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CLOUDY SKIES IN LOCATIONS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THUS THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH. THE FRONT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH
THE REGION BY 5 PM CDT SO A QUIET EVENING WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREAT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A TORNADO BUT
DUE TO THE LINEAR NATURE TO THE STORMS/LACK OF DISCREET STORMS
AHEAD OF THE LINE...THINKING THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
PRETTY SMALL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. NOT SURE IF THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT BUT HAVE LEFT IT AS
IS FOR NOW. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
27 FOR TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN. HOWEVER...HOW STRONG
REMAINS ANOTHER QUESTION. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE HEADING NORTHEAST WITH A WEAKENING IN THE WIND FIELD ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO REACH THE GROUND. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. THINKING IS
THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER TOMORROW...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS START OUT IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
THURSDAY WITH A LARGE LOW IN THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE HUDSON BAY
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...THE LEAD TROUGH OF THE GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS THE
TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND DIVES
SOUTH INTO BAJA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A CONNECTION
BETWEEN THE LEAD TROUGH AND THE EXTENSION OF IT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES...SO IT PRODUCES A MEAN PATTEN THAT IS LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND IS SLOWER TO FLATTEN OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...EVEN THOUGH IT EVENTUALLY ALSO PRODUCES A CUTOFF
LOW CENTER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY 18Z SUNDAY.

THE GFS IS STILL HANGING ONTO A DRY SOLUTION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS STILL PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COOL SURGE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE BOOSTING POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  COULD
SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.  BUT SINCE THERE IS
RELUCTANCE TO EVEN MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT...HAVE
KEPT IT ALL LIQUID AT THIS POINT.  WILL LIKELY RESOLVE IT BETTER IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS THAT TIME OF CONCERN MOVES INTO THE SHORT
TERM AND WE ARE FINISHED DEALING WITH CURRENT SHORT TERM CONCERNS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WIND...AND A POSSIBLE FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. FOR
KMCK...STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH KGLD AT 19Z AND KMCK BY 20Z. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. OF
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BUT SLOWLY DECREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AS STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
BEGIN TO MIX DOWN. SKY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED AS WELL.
THERE IS A PATCH OF MARGINALLY MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO KMCK TONIGHT. THEN
TOMORROW...IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LOW VFR CLOUDS...AROUND 4-5
KFT...TO POSSIBLY MVFR MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SWINGS AROUND THE BACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151315-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1100 AM MDT MON OCT 14 2013 /1200 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO
RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. RAPIDLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 DEGREES OR
LESS WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED AT MANY LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 PM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N ATWOOD              39.87N 101.05W
10/14/2013  M55 MPH          RAWLINS            KS   MESONET

&&

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N ATWOOD              39.84N 101.05W
10/14/2013  M51 MPH          RAWLINS            KS   MESONET

&&

99

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT MON OCT 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             7 W LOGAN               39.66N 99.70W
10/14/2013  E0.50 INCH       NORTON             KS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL MEASURED.

&&

MK

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