Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Goodland, KS

042 
WGUS73 KGLD 112251
FFSGLD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

COC063-112307-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130811T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KIT CARSON CO-
451 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL KIT
CARSON COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 500 PM MDT/600 PM CDT/...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3938 10301 3923 10301 3923 10316 3938 10316

$$

024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION TRANSITIONS
SLIGHTLY FROM A WEST NORTHWESTERLY TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS MINOR CHANGE WILL HELP KEEP
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AS A
SURFACE FRONT BACKS INTO THE REGION AND REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE CUTTING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY AND MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
UTAH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS FRONT STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
AND WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND MODELS
PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART AS MODELS
STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE
FEATURES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE OTHER FEATURES AND
WILL START TO FLATTEN/PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/VORTICITY
THROUGH THE CWA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN
PRECIP CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS NO WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AFFECT THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS THE COOLER AIR WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE MIDWEST FILTERS INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS AND THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING...ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
PLACE A TEMPO GROUP INTO THE TAF. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...FOG AND STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN.
THINKING THAT KGLD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCED VIS/CIGS
DUE TO THE EARLIER CLEARING OF HIGH CLOUDS. HAVE DROPPED KMCK TO MVFR
VIS WITH SCT007 MENTIONED FOR POSSIBLE STRATUS. REDUCED CIGS/VIS SHOULD
COME TO AN END AROUND 15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...RRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121600-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013 /1145 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM JOES COLORADO TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH SATURATED SOIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF
PROLONGED RAINFALL AND SEVERAL STORMS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA
SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ALSO
EXISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

COZ091-112000-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
132 PM MDT SUN AUG 11 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 128 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF FLAGLER...OR NEAR FLAGLER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 10316 3940 10316 3949 10301 3926 10284
      3917 10316 3919 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 241DEG 4KT 3928 10316

HUSTED