Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Grand Junction, CO

098 
WWUS85 KGJT 280316
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
916 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7PM TUESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 8500 FEET...

.DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 8500 FEET.

COZ207-281400-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0013.130528T1800Z-130529T0100Z/
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
916 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 207...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN SOUTHWEST COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207
  DURANGO FORECAST AREA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...9 TO 14 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL 
  COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RAPID 
  FIRE GROWTH ON ANY WILDFIRES OR PRESCRIBED BURNS...AND 
  AGRICULTURAL BURNS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND AFFECTED FIELD
PERSONNEL OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT (ALL LOWER CASE)

044 
WWUS85 KGJT 281200
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
600 AM MDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7PM TUESDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHWEST
COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 8500 FEET...

.DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 8500 FEET.

COZ207-290000-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0013.130528T1800Z-130529T0100Z/
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
600 AM MDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 DURANGO 
  FORECAST AREA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...6 TO 12 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL 
  COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RAPID 
  FIRE GROWTH ON ANY WILDFIRES OR PRESCRIBED BURNS...AND 
  AGRICULTURAL BURNS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND AFFECTED FIELD
PERSONNEL OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT (ALL LOWER CASE)

244 
WWUS85 KGJT 282336
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
536 PM MDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR GUSTY
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR SOUTHWEST COLORADO FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 8500 FEET...

.STRONG...DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 BELOW 8500 FEET.

COZ207-290100-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130529T0100Z/
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
536 PM MDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 207...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 DURANGO 
  FORECAST AREA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...6 TO 12 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL 
  COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RAPID 
  FIRE GROWTH ON ANY WILDFIRES OR PRESCRIBED BURNS...AND 
  AGRICULTURAL BURNS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND AFFECTED FIELD
PERSONNEL OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT (ALL LOWER CASE)

233 
WWUS85 KGJT 290048
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
648 PM MDT TUE MAY 28 2013

COZ207-290200-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-130529T0100Z/
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
648 PM MDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
207...

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THE HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE...THUS THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1120 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE DIGITAL DATABASE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. BANDS OF
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...AND SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO ANY SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER ERN IDAHO LIFTS INTO ERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NW COLORADO (BARELY
REFLECTED ON THE MODEL SURFACE PROGS.) WHATEVER BOUNDARY THAT
EXISTS...IT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NW COLORADO DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS. HIGHER RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH SHOWS MINIMAL MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND QPF IS NEARLY NON EXISTANT...BUT CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY DOES EXIST ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR A POSSIBLE LATE
DAY STORM...PRIMARILY OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS AND FROM THE
TAVAPUTS/ROAN PLATEAU TO THE FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON USING THE JET MAX APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NW COAST TO DIG A TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGIN TO ARRIVE...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES NE
UT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH
AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE QG FORCING SHOULD BOOST THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TUE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NE UT WHERE THE 300 MB
DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZES. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRY SIDE
BUT SHOULD WET UP FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR EAST AND
THE GRADIENT INCREASES...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SW CO ONCE AGAIN WHERE THE DRIEST FUELS ARE INDICATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY MORE PACIFIC ENERGY RACING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WED. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PLUS BRING IN COLDER AIR.
GFS/NAM MODELS SHOW THE 700 MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW ZERO CELSIUS
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TUE NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW OVER THE MTNS...WITH
SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS ABOVE
9K-10K FT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON TUESDAY.

STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WILL
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES
HOLD OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS REMAIN COOL AND
UNSETTLED INTO FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES RECOVER QUICKLY THIS
WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AND A FAIRLY TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR TAF SITES. SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN
COULD SEE TEMPORARY OBSCURATIONS FROM ISOL-SCT -TSRA THIS AFTN AND
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO HEIGHTEN AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AND DRY
AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. MAY NOT BE THE IDEAL SCENARIO AS CLOUDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD OFFSET. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR CO FIRE WX ZONE
207 FOR TUE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO REACH NE UTAH AND
FAR NW COLORADO TUE AFTERNOON PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME INTI AL STORMS WILL BE DRY BUT SHOULD WET UP
FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON
THE IMPORTANT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS ADD TO THE CONCERN.

COOLER THEN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ207.

UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BWM
SHORT TERM...PF/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/PF
AVIATION...BWM
FIRE WEATHER...JAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
638 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-281300-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
638 AM MDT MON MAY 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. THESE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS
BELOW 8500 FEET FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY
FUELS...ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST COLORADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...INITIALLY FORMING OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPANDING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.