Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SFC COLD FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT BEGINNING ON SUNDAY...IN ADDITION TO CARRYING WITH IT
A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME NEEDED PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.

MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30
TO 35 KTS IS INDICATIVE OF A POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT. A COOL FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WILL ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DYNAMIC
ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. GIVEN THE BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT BEING WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST...WILL JUST CALL FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RATHER
THAN ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER 6 PM WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TRI CITIES BETWEEN 7 PM AND 11 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 OR MORE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE LESS HUMID AND ONCE AGAIN DRY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92 TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SUBTLE THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PRESENTING ~20% POPS
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-80 AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART. ALLBLEND ALSO PROVIDED ~20% POPS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST FOR NEXT SATURDAY...LIKELY INFLUENCED BY THE EC WHICH
PRESENTS PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO THE EMERGENCE
OF A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION. THE POPS FOR SATURDAY WERE ALSO LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

MONDAY APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND RESULTANT THERMAL
ADVECTION HOWEVER SHOULD PROMOTE WARMER WEATHER TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
90S CURRENTLY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

COULD STILL SEE A SHRA OR TSRA DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND
KEPT A VCTS AND CB IN THE TAF UNTIL 01/09Z TO COVER THIS. ONCE THE
FRONT REACHES THE TERMINAL...EXPECT AN ABRUPT SHIFT IN
WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 01/09Z...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS LATER TODAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...SAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
011200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1240 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

NEZ074-083-084-010600-
FRANKLIN NE-HARLAN NE-KEARNEY NE-
1240 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KEARNEY...
NORTHEASTERN HARLAN AND WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1238 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLDREGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

AT 1235 AM...A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH WAS MEASURED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WILCOX...
  RAGAN...
  AXTELL...
  HILDRETH...
  MINDEN...
  FRANKLIN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4035 9919 4036 9918 4052 9918 4052 9893
      4007 9893 4014 9918 4035 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 294DEG 18KT 4047 9941

HALBLAUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 AM CDT SUN SEP 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     TSTM WND GST     HOLDREGE AIRPORT        40.45N 99.34W
09/01/2013  M54 MPH          PHELPS             NE   AWOS

&&

HALBLAUB

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