Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
628 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WE ARE MONITORING RADAR.

PLEASE SEE THE 1113 AM AFD FOR OUR MORE EXTENSIVE THINKING ON THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTATIONS.

ALOFT: AN 85 KT ULJ ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE WAS EJECTING ONTO THE
SRN PLAINS WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER SD.

SFC: A COOL FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA AT 19Z /ROUGHLY JUST W OF
HWY 281/. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DEPART TO THE E THIS EVNG...
PUTTING THE FCST AREA IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THE CUT-OFF.

NOW THRU SUNSET: DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY. SO EXPECT SCT TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE WIND PROFILE IS BECOMING UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND 0-5 KM SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS. MLCAPE
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS OF MULTICELLS. OVERALL EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF SUB-
SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

WHILE TOR WW 181 IS IN EFFECT FROM GENEVA NEB-BELOIT KS...THIS IS
MAINLY TO COVER THE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THAT IS LIKELY TO TAKE
THE FORM OF MARGINAL 1" HAIL AND G60 MPH. AS THE STORM STRENGTHEN
THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE FURTHER E.

TNGT: TSTMS WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FCST MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUDS. EXPECT M/CLEAR TO P/CLOUDY.

MON: A DECENT START TO THE DAY BUT UPR-LVL COLD POOL WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION AND ISOLATED AFTN SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. MOST PLACES
WILL REMAIN DRY.

BREEZY W WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH AFTER 10 AM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
TO THE EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MUCAPE IS LITTLE TO NOTHING. IN ADDITION
DURING THIS TIME THERE IS A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT STILL SENDS SOME WEAK LOBES OF
ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THERE TO BE CLOUDS. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH AND THE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL.
THE COOLER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...THERE
IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHWEST
CONUS WILL START TO AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN BY THURSDAY. THE FIRST
WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WEAK WAVES
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WAVES AND THEREFORE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE WILL BE. IT LIKELY
WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THE TIME IN EVERY LOCATION...BUT HAVE
KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THERE IS
SOME WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR
OR SO. A COUPLE OF CONCERNS DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
TURNING TO THE WEST BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD GET GUSTY
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING SOME LOWER CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND REMAIN VFR.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW...BUT NEED TO WATCH IT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...JCB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
547 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             2 W FULLERTON           41.36N 98.01W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       NANCE              NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
549 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             6 ENE KEARNEY           40.73N 98.98W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

0336 PM     HAIL             3 S COZAD               40.82N 99.99W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   STORM CHASER

0342 PM     HAIL             3 SE COZAD              40.83N 99.95W
05/19/2013  E1.50 INCH       DAWSON             NE   STORM CHASER

0346 PM     HAIL             1 N GIBBON              40.76N 98.84W
05/19/2013  E2.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NORTH OF
            GIBBON NEAR 85TH ROAD

0359 PM     HAIL             10 NW LEXINGTON         40.88N 99.88W
05/19/2013  E1.50 INCH       DAWSON             NE   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTS QUARTER AND PING PONG SIZE HAIL

0400 PM     HAIL             2 E GIBBON              40.75N 98.81W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

0407 PM     HAIL             10 NNW LEXINGTON        40.91N 99.82W
05/19/2013  E1.75 INCH       DAWSON             NE   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTS GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE
            ROAD.

0413 PM     HAIL             15 N LEXINGTON          41.00N 99.74W
05/19/2013  E1.75 INCH       DAWSON             NE   STORM CHASER

0425 PM     HAIL             5 NW WOOD RIVER         40.87N 98.67W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       HALL               NE   PUBLIC

0435 PM     HAIL             1 N WOOD RIVER          40.84N 98.60W
05/19/2013  E0.88 INCH       HALL               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DEPUTY REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL 1 MILE NORTH OF WOOD
            RIVER.

0444 PM     HAIL             4 N ST. LIBORY          41.14N 98.35W
05/19/2013  E1.75 INCH       HOWARD             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0446 PM     HAIL             WOOD RIVER              40.82N 98.60W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       HALL               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0449 PM     HAIL             2 N PROSSER             40.72N 98.58W
05/19/2013  E0.50 INCH       HALL               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER

0451 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 N WOLBACH             41.44N 98.39W
05/19/2013                   GREELEY            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL DID NOT TOUCH DOWN AND DISSIPATED AS OF THIS TIME.

0454 PM     HAIL             ST. PAUL                41.21N 98.46W
05/19/2013  E0.50 INCH       HOWARD             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NWS CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL.

0458 PM     HAIL             ALDA                    40.86N 98.47W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       HALL               NE   PUBLIC

0500 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     WOLBACH                 41.40N 98.39W
05/19/2013                   GREELEY            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DELAYED REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD

0505 PM     HAIL             2 S ALDA                40.84N 98.47W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       HALL               NE   PUBLIC

0511 PM     HAIL             ALDA                    40.86N 98.47W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       HALL               NE   PUBLIC

0513 PM     HAIL             GRAND ISLAND            40.92N 98.37W
05/19/2013  E0.50 INCH       HALL               NE   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON SOUTH SIDE OF GRAND ISLAND

0527 PM     HAIL             GRAND ISLAND            40.92N 98.37W
05/19/2013  E0.88 INCH       HALL               NE   PUBLIC

0527 PM     HAIL             HASTINGS                40.59N 98.39W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS HAIL UP TO ONE INCH

0528 PM     HAIL             HASTINGS                40.59N 98.39W
05/19/2013  M1.00 INCH       ADAMS              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MOSTLY PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED

0529 PM     HAIL             DONIPHAN                40.77N 98.37W
05/19/2013  E0.75 INCH       HALL               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0536 PM     HAIL             HASTINGS                40.59N 98.39W
05/19/2013  E1.25 INCH       ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

0546 PM     HAIL             2 W FULLERTON           41.36N 98.01W
05/19/2013  E1.00 INCH       NANCE              NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

REED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             4 S PHILLIPS            40.84N 98.21W
05/19/2013  E0.50 INCH       HAMILTON           NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PHILLIPS FIRE DEPARTMENT 4
            MILES SOUTH OF PHILLIPS

&&

REED

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