Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
705 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

LOW AMPLITUDE WNW FLOW IS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTN. A SUBTLE SHORT-
WAVE /SHRTWV/ TROF WAS PROGRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS
TROF WILL MOVE THRU TNGT...CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TSTMS.

THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT EXTENDED NW-SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK
SFC LOW /1013 MB/ HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LEE TROF. THIS LOW WILL
HEAD SE...DRAGGING THE FRONT THRU HERE SAT MRNG.

REST OF THIS AFTN: A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN. SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SCT SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP OVER WRN NEB.

THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN 85 KT JET ON THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TNGT. MODEL DIAGNOSIS SUGGESTS PRIMARY
FORCING WILL BE A COLD FRONT ALOFT WITH JET-GENERATED WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF IT.

TNGT: A PERIOD OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS LIKELY PER MESO-MODEL SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY. MILD. LOW TEMPS ARE JUST BELOW THE WARMEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE /CONSENSUS OF 2M TEMPS/.

BEFORE THE NAM CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION KICKS IN...MUCAPE IS FCST
500-1000 J/KG. 09Z SREF PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 500 J/KG ARE
ABOVE 70 PERCENT AND AS HIGH AS 90. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/850-300 MB/ 30-40 KTS. MOST OF THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL BE
ABOVE THE FRZG LEVEL. THIS SUGGESTS THREAT OF HAIL IS SUBSTANTIAL
...ESPECIALLY "IF" HAIL CAN FALL OUTSIDE THE MAIN PCPN CASCADE.
NOT SURE ENUF SHEAR EXISTS. /DRY HAIL MELTS MUCH SLOWER AND DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL HELP/. WITHIN THE RAIN SHAFT EXPECT PARTIAL
MELTING WILL KEEP HAIL BELOW SEVERE LIMIT.

AFTER 09Z THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY FOG. DWPTS HAVE BEEN MODESTLY MIXING DOWN OVER OUR NEB
COUNTIES AND HOLDING STEADY OVER N-CNTRL KS. RAIN SHOULD ELEVATED
DWPTS OVER S-CNTRL NEB. HOWEVER...A WARM NGT SHOULD MITIGATE FOG
POTENTIAL.

SAT: A LEFTOVER SHWR/TSTM IS POSSIBLE OF HWY 81 BEFORE 9 AM.
OTHERWISE CLEARING. ANOTHER STRENGTHENING SHRTWV TROF WILL APPROACH
DURING PEAK-HEATING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHWRS OR SPRINKLES...PRIMARILY ALONG AND W OF HWY 281 WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FURTHER W.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH OF A PUNCH WITH THIS COOL FRONT. NW WINDS OCCASIONALLY G30
MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS REMAINS A STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO KEY IN ON A VERY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS NOW EVIDENT BY
850MB TEMPS DROPPING 20C OR MORE BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL PRECIPITATION OUTPUT WITH THIS SYSTEM...
HOWEVER...IS FAIRLY SPOTTY AND MORE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY MORNING...WHERE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
FOCUSED. EVEN SO...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT RUSHES IN ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND TRIED TO PUT A MORE
PRECISE TIMING ON TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST
BASED ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT...EXPECT A FAIRLY NICE START TO EASTER
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KANSAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE THE INFLUENCE FROM THIS NEXT FRONT WILL NOT BE FELT
UNTIL WELL AFTER THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. AS A
RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. OTHERWISE...MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT ITSELF DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN QPF OUTPUT...AND FOCUSED JUST ON NAILING DOWN
THE PRECIP TYPE A LITTLE MORE PRECISELY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

TUESDAY ON...EXPECT A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES AND SUNNY SKIES
RETURN. AT THIS POINT...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO
BE NEXT FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO 5-10F
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. WITH NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...ALBEIT THE EC AND GFS ARE
BOTH HINTING AT A WEAKER FRONT BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND VERY
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE CHANCE OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN A BROKEN LINE NEAR NORTH PLATTE AND WILL GENERALLY MOVE EAST
WITH TIME. IF THE THUNDERSTORMS HOLD TOGETHER THEY WOULD ENTER THE
KGRI AREA AROUND 03Z/10PM. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE KGRI
VICINITY INTO THE EARLY MORNING/PRE DAWN HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLICE THROUGH KGRI AROUND OR JUST PRIOR TO DAWN AND WILL RESULT
IN A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NORTHWEST OVER THE
COURSE OF 2 OR 3 HOURS. THE WIND WILL THEN BE RATHER GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...SAR

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
918 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HAIL             1 E HOLBROOK            40.30N 99.99W
03/29/2013  E1.00 INCH       FURNAS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN REPORTED 1 MILE EAST OF
            HOLBROOK.

&&

REED

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>