Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
715 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

ALOFT: SW FLOW REMAINS AS WE AWAIT A STRONG UPR LOW OVER THE WRN
USA /HGTS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL/. THIS LOW WILL
INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SWINGS THRU UT AND CO TNGT. IT WILL
REFORM OVER THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW.

SFC: A STRONG COLD FRONT BISECTED THE FCST AREA AND WAS BEING
ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS ON THE
COLD SIDE HAS KEPT TEMPS JAMMED IN THE 50S AT LEXINGTON AND ORD.
THE FRONT HAS BEEN ON THE MOVE AND IT CAN BE SEEN DROPPING SE IN
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. IT HAS PASSED THRU EAR AND GRI IN THE
LAST HR. WHAT EXACTLY OCCURS WITH THIS FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT
COULD STALL AND REMAIN STATIONARY TNGT...OR COULD MOVE BACK NW AS
THE NEW LEE LOW HEADS NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TOMORROW.

REST OF THIS AFTN: WE CONT TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH OF THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN
STUCK IN STRATOCU TODAY WHICH AS INHIBITED HEATING. IN
ADDITION...WAVE CLOUDS INDICATE A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TSTMS WILL DEVELOP. IF THEY DO SVR HAIL AND
WIND IS POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE AND BACKED
WINDS IN THE LOW-LVLS/CLOCKWISE-TURNING HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST A
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE S OF
HWY 6.

OVERALL...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTN-TOMORROW.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE PROBABLY DONE WITH
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN.

TNGT: TSTM THREAT EXPECTED TO END BY 10 PM. OTHERWISE QUIET. THE
LLJ WILL BE ORIENTED E OF THE FCST AREA. A MILD NGT S OF THE
FRONT.

DENSE FOG?: LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN
AREAS WHERE WINDS BECOME LGT. COULD BE DENSE AND BELIEVE THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT/ THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED IN
SOME COUNTIES.

TOMORROW: CLOUDY AND COOL TO START MOST AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR MRNG
FOG. GRADUAL CLEARING. THE UPR LOW TRACKING THRU THE PANHANDLE
WILL MEAN DRY SLOT HERE. STRONG CAA AS THE LOW MOVES BY AND
BECOMING WINDY.

THERE IS A SUBJECTIVE 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT AREAS S AND W
OF THE TRI-CITIES WILL REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY TOMORROW AFTN. THE
WINDS ARE IN THE FCST. ISSUANCE PROBABLY OCCURS WITH THE 4 AM FCST
TOMORROW MRNG.

POST MORTEM: A BUSY DAY WITH FOLLOW-UP AND DATA COLLECTION FROM
THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT LAST NGT. OUR SUMMARY LSR HAS THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE TOTALS. THE LENGTHY LCO PRODUCT IS MORE
COMPREHENSIVE. ESSENTIALLY 2-5" FELL OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A COUPLE POINT TOTALS OF 6-8". THAT ONE TO TWO MONTH/S
WORTH OF RAIN IN ROUGHLY 6 HRS! WE HAVE SEEN RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
THE MOST DRAMATIC INCREASES HAS BEEN ON THE CEDAR...LITTLE BLUE
AND LOUP RVRS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

FOCUS WILL BE DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING PART OF
THE FORECAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE DEALING WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY EVENING...COLD AND BLUSTERY ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN FROST POTENTIAL SUNRISE SUNDAY. AFTER THAT
TRANQUIL WEATHER MOVES IN AT LEAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORKWEEK.

CONSISTENCY AMONG THE  MODELS JUST NOT THERE WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM CONSIDERING IT IS ONLY A DAY OR TWO OUT. LOOKING AT 500
MB...THE UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL
BE ON THE MOVE OVER  THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH HOW MUCH IT DEEPENS. BY 00Z
SAT THE 12Z NAM RUN PLACES A 549 LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF VALENTINE
WHILE THE 00Z EC RUN HAS IT AT 560 DM ON THE NEB/WY BORDER IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THATS ABOUT A 200 MILE DIFFERENCE WITH THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. CHECKING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE  EC 12 HOURS INTO THE RUN SHOWS IT IS PRETTY
CLOSE AT THE MOMENT. WILL NEED TO GRAB A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z
EC...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS ITS
AN OUTLIER. THE LATEST GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAT THE PREVIOUS
RUN AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM THROUGH 12Z SAT. AFTER THAT THE NAM
MOVES IT OUT MUCH QUICKER...PLACING IT OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SUN. OLD EC HAS UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
THIS TIME RESULTING IN A DIFFERENCE OF OVER 500 MILES BETWEEN THE
TWO SOLUTIONS.

THE REASON ALL OF THIS IS IMPORTANT IS OBVIOUSLY THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM WILL DICTATE FRONTAL PASSAGE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHEN
THE WINDS SHIFT AND REALLY PICK UP...ETC. NAM HAS SURFACE LOW
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 00Z SATURDAY...WHILE GFS IS
SLOWER...OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND EC OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. IF NAM VERIFIED WE WOULD ALREADY BE SEEING STRONG WINDS
BY NOON FRIDAY...WHILE THEY WOULD PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS
VERIFIES.

AT THIS POINT WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTIONS...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EC AND NAM. AS FAR
PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE CWA BY 00Z SAT. MIGHT LEAVE A LITTLE BUFFER IN THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA FOR A FEW HOURS JUST IN CASE
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. OTHERWISE GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW...THE BULK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CWA.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW REALLY GETS WOUND UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF
20 MB. WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT STILL OVER 24
HOURS OUT SO WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS DEAL WITH IT AS THAT WILL
STILL GIVE CUSTOMERS PLENTY OF NOTICE. COLD AIR WILL ALSO FILTER
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES DROP FROM TE
CURRENT 575 DM TO 545 DM. SHOULD STILL BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR FROST
ON SATURDAY MORNING BUT BY SUNDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO ALLOW THE GRADIENT...AND THUS
THE WINDS...TO WEAKEN TO THE POINT WHERE FROST IS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK STILL LOOKS
QUIET WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN SLATED FOR THE THUR-FRI TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TO START THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR 02-14Z...FOLLOWED BY
VFR CONDITIONS 14Z ONWARD.

A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARED GRI A COUPLE HOURS AGO AND
STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...JUST 30-50 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. A
CEILING NEAR 500FT AGL IS BEING OBSERVED AT MANY POINTS NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM KLXN TO KODX AND THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
IFR CEILING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY IMPACTING
GRI...SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT NOT
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. ONCE THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS NORTHWEST...THE STRATUS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
GRI. AS A RESULT...A CEILING NEAR 900FT AGL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
AT GRI 02-14Z. ALL THAT BEING SAID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
THE PRECISE TIMING OF STRATUS INFILTRATION INTO GRI IS SOMEWHAT IN
DOUBT AND TAF AMENDMENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG
THE AXIS OF A ~50KT 850MB JET STREAK...BUT AT THIS TIME THE BULK
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE GRI COULD
OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT GRI IS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. HEADING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY...A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE OVERCOME BY A
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION AND AS A RESULT...DECREASING CLOUD COVER
AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FORECAST.

ONCE THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES MOVE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
ON FRIDAY...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE
A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WIND...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 20KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND
30KTS...WILL BE REALIZED 18Z ONWARD AND SUCH CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
FORECAST IN THE TAF.

FINALLY...DECREASING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING MAY PROMOTE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND PERHAPS SOME FOG IN MORE SHELTERED AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...BUT
THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ~5SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT GRI AND
SUCH CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST 09-14Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...BRYANT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
754 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

NEZ076-040130-
CLAY NE-
754 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 751 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLAY CENTER...OR 17 MILES EAST OF
HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HARVARD...
  SARONVILLE...
  SUTTON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4038 9795 4050 9826 4070 9818 4070 9815
      4068 9783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 214DEG 21KT 4053 9807

BRYANT