Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUING TO BRING
PRECIPITATION  CHANCES. SEEING ACTIVITY ALREADY GOING TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA WITH THE NEXT ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCE...AS WELL
AS OFF TO THE WEST OVER COLORADO. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON BOTH
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CWA CONTINUES TO SEE GENERALLY EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...WITH LOW
PRESSURE SET UP OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...AND HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND ERN NEB. SEEING A FEW DIFFERENT
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...SOME LEFT FROM OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
STORMS...WHILE ANOTHER IS SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ACROSS OUR CWA AND LOWER/MID 50S JUST OUTSIDE THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE CWA. THANKS TO THIS MOISTURE AXIS NOSING INTO THE
CWA...SEEING MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SVR WX.
EXPECTING ONGOING ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH TO TRANSITION INTO A
MCS AS IT SLIDES SOUTH...AND LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE WRN
HALF OF THE CWA...AND A WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SC NEB PORTION OF THAT AREA. WILL SEE HOW THE ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTH EVOLVES...AND BETWEEN THAT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
COLORADO SLIDING EAST...EXPANSION OF THE WATCH FURTHER SOUTH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

ONCE THIS ACTIVITY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE CWA LATER THIS
EVENING...HAVE  DRY CONDITIONS GOING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
E/SERLY...BUT WILL BE AFFECTED BY ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW...CURRENTLY HAVE THE FORECAST
DRY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO
RETURN. AM CONCERNED ABOUT YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS...AIDED BY LOWER LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. COULD SEE SOME
OF THAT ACTIVITY DRIFT EAST EVENTUALLY...BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP ALONG A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT MAY BE DRAPED W-E ACROSS THE CWA. WILL AGAIN HAVE
THE CONCERN FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE STRONG/SEVERE
SIDE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BE NOTED OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL...BUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS PROVIDING
SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY ONWARD. PERIODIC
MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITHIN THE MEAN MID LEVEL FLOW DURING THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...THUS PRESENTING PERIODS OF INCREASED OMEGA AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...DETAILS
REGARDING THE TIMING AND POSITION OF SUCH SUBTLE FEATURES SO FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST REMAIN MURKY. QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS MODELS
PRESENT VARYING SOLUTIONS THUS PROVIDING A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO POPS. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WENT
AHEAD WITH A BLEND OF NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN
GUIDANCE TO DERIVE QPF GRIDS...AND THEN DERIVED POPS FROM THESE
RESULTANT QPF GRIDS. WHAT MODEST MODEL CONSENSUS THERE IS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA
STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT OBSERVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SEEING AS HOW
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...PER THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC...SUGGEST STEEP LOW
TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF OUR WEST/SOUTHWESTERN CWA BOTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HARD TO TELL JUST HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
SUSTAIN ITSELF INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH NIGHT...OR LINGER
INTO THE MORNING HOURS THE FOLLOWING DAYS. SO WHILE MUCH OF OUR
CWA CURRENTLY HAS AT LEAST 20% POPS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE HIGHER POPS...GENERALLY 30-40%...COVERING
OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY ONWARD...ALLBLEND RESPONDED
BY PROVIDING 20-40% POPS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MOST EVERY DAY.
TIMING AND POSITION DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO ANY OF THE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY NOT BECOME ANY
MORE CLEAR FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AND AS A RESULT...THE
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESSFULLY IMPROVING THE FORECAST AS PROVIDED BY
ALLBLEND IS LOW. GIVEN THIS LOW PROBABILITY...OPTED TO LEAVE THE
ALLBLEND POPS UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...AND EC ALL SUGGEST DEEP LAYER MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1500-3000J/KG WILL ACCOMPANY DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
VALUES  OF ~30KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW DEEP LAYER MUCAPE VALUES TO EXCEED
3000J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST...WITH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE 40-45KT RANGE. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WILL GO AHEAD WITH SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE
WEATHER TIMING AND POSITION REMAIN BLURRY AND AS A RESULT...WILL
CONTINUE THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE TIME
BEING.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD PRESENT SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE GENERALLY IN THE 80S CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...SHOULD PROMOTE A WARMING TREND TO
FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED FOR THE MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS CREEPING INTO
THE 70S FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BRINGING POTENTIALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN INTO THE VICINITY OF KGRI...AND INTRODUCED A
TEMPO GROUP FROM 17/01-03Z TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY...EVEN THOUGH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VICINITY STORMS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHEATERLY AHEAD OF THIS LINE...VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BECOMING EASTERLY AFT 18Z MONDAY AS SKIES
CLEAR...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...SAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
171200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
249 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEVERE...WITH QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR
VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ADO/BRYANT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
553 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             1 N LITCHFIELD          41.17N 99.15W
06/16/2013  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

SROSSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NEZ060-061-073-162330-
BUFFALO NE-DAWSON NE-PHELPS NE-
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PHELPS...
SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON AND SOUTHWESTERN BUFFALO COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELM CREEK...OR 17 MILES EAST OF LEXINGTON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ELM CREEK...
  AMHERST...
  ODESSA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 248 AND 268.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4081 9956 4088 9917 4047 9918 4065 9957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 293DEG 18KT 4070 9941

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
602 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             LITCHFIELD              41.16N 99.15W
06/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            NE   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA POST OF QUARTER HAIL IN LITCHFIELD.

&&

SALTZMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             6 S ELM CREEK           40.63N 99.38W
06/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       PHELPS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO 50 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

EWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
654 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             AXTELL                  40.48N 99.13W
06/16/2013  E1.00 INCH       KEARNEY            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO 50 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

EWALD