Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THIS AFTN: EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO ERUPT ALONG THE APPROACHING COOL
FRONT. TEMPS IN THE 90S WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MLCAPE OF
2000-3500 J/KG. CHARACTER OF THE TSTMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE MESOSCALE AIR MASSES IT
SEPARATES. MESOSCALE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORM MODE...AND FURTHER ENHANCED BY LARGE
25-30F SFC DWPT DEPRESSIONS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. THE LACK OF SUPERCELLS WILL LIMIT THE SIZE
OF THE HAIL.

THE WARM FRONT HAS "JUMPED" TO JUST E OF THE FCST AREA. SO WINDS ARE
NOW UNIDIRECTIONAL. SO THE DECREASED LOW-LVL SHEAR AND HIGHER LCL
HGTS WILL MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.

PLEASE FOLLOW THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE SPC VIA THEIR OUTLOOKS AND
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...AND ALL FUTURE STATEMENTS/WATCHES/WARNINGS
FROM THIS OFFICE.

SKYWARN: LOOK FOR ACTIVATION BETWEEN 3PM-5PM.

TNGT: GIVEN OUTFLOW DOMINANCE OF THE TSTMS...EXPECT THEM TO ORGANIZE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COMBINED COLD POOL AND FORM AN MCS THAT
ROUNDS THE UPR RIDGE. THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT /PRIOR TO MCS
FORMATION/ WILL BE OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO OUR FCST AREA.

SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHAT OCCURS AFTER THE INITIAL
TSTMS DEVELOP AND EXIT TO THE E. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY
W-E NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER...AND THE LLJ FCST TO DEVELOP /45 KTS/
OVER WRN KS...HAVE TO WONDER IF ADDITIONAL TSTMS FORM DEVELOP AT ITS
NOSE AND LIFT N INTO OUR NEB COUNTIES AFTER MIDNGT.

FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE SREF QPF PROBABILITIES INCREASE AFTER
MIDNGT AND 24 HR QPF VERIFICATION /FOR THE LAST 3 MONTHS/ SHOWS THAT
THE SREF HAS SOME OF THE HIGHER SCORES FOR QPF AMOUNTS OVER A TENTH.

THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES THESE TSTMS FORM OVER OUR FCST AREA. SOME
MODELS INDICATE THEY DEVELOP OVER NRN NEB.

THE RRQ OF THE 80 KT ULJ SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED.

THE CONFIGURATION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
MADDOX FRONTAL TYPE FLASH FLOOD MODEL. SO OVERNGT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. CORFIDI VECTORS LOOK THREATENING
WITH MOVEMENRT OF MESO-BETA CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

POPS ARE PRIMARILY BASED ON MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS THRU 04Z AND THEN
SREF THEREAFTER.

SAT: SCT TSTMS COULD BE ON-GOING AT DAWN. FRONT REMAINS STALLED W-E
SO TSTMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME DURING THE DAY...BUT OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DAYTIME BREAK BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT AFTER 4 PM. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AS
AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES.  AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES AROUND FM LINGERING
CONVECTION. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING HEADING INTO THE
EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL CHCS FOR STORMS EXIST OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF SFC LOW/TROUGH ALONG HIGH PLAINS
ROLL EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH NC KANSAS SEEING THE HIGHER PCPN
CHCS DUE TO SFC LOW POSITION...WITH A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...BOUNDARY PLACEMENT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS DO SUGGEST
BOUNDARIES WILL LINGER ACROSS NEB/KS WHICH WILL BE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION IN WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
TO THE WEST ALONG SFC TROUGH. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AROUND WITH
SFC DPS IN THE 60S...LENDING TO INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AROUND 3000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS PROGGED AROUND 30KTS. WITH
BOUNDARY/BOUNDARIES AROUND AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THRU...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.

A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS IN ON MONDAY AS WAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER PCPN WILL
DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF FRONT OR IN UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY BUT
PREFER TO KEEP THINGS DRY VS BLANKET POPS EACH DAY WHEN CHCS DO NOT
APPEAR OVERLY PROMISING JUST YET.  UNDER INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
RIDGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY INTO TUESDAY.  CHCS FOR
CONVECTION RETURN WITH RETURN OF MOISTURE/RETURN FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH HIT OR MISS CHCS DEPENDING ON TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THIS AFTN: VFR THOUGH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPING AROUND 22Z WITH POCKETS
OF IFR VSBYS. THREAT IS COVERED WITH VCTS UNTIL WE CAN BE MORE
CERTAIN THE TERMINAL WILL ACTUALLY BE HIT. THESE TSTMS WILL
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS WITH 40 KTS LIKELY AND 50 KTS POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...S WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN AND
THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS AS A COOL FRONT
APPROACHES. THERE MAY BE A PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION...BUT
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE PRECLUDES A DEFINITE DIRECTION.

TNGT: VFR OUTSIDE OF SCT TSTMS THEN THREAT DIMINISHES BUT MAY NOT
END AFTER 04Z. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE VCTS AFTER 04Z BUT
IT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE INCLUDED.

SAT: SCT TSTMS CONTINUE THOUGH EXPECT VFR MOST OF THE TIME.

CIG CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH OUTSIDE OF TSTMS
WX CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF TSTMS
WIND CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
331 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     HAIL             1 S HOLDREGE            40.43N 99.38W
06/14/2013  E0.50 INCH       PHELPS             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS 50 MPH WINDS AND PEA TO MARBLE
            SIZED HAIL.

&&

SROSSI

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