Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
246 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
SMALL. IN ADDITION THE RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH A STRONGER BAND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT
JUST MOVING INTO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS IS NEAR THE FRONT.

CURRENTLY WAITING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE LATEST
RAP WOULD SUGGEST THE MUCAPE INCREASING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING CAPE. THE
ONLY CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE
KEPT THE HEATING FROM ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS COMING IN THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT TO OVERCOME AND ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE EASTERN HALF
OR SO OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ARE MAINLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST DURING
THE EVENING BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY.

LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013

PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE WEATHER THIS WEEK AS AN EARLY
TASTE OF SUMMER SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION LIKELY VERY LIMITED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WORK WEEK.

MID RANGE MODELS ALL POINT TOWARD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPANDING ITS REACH NORTH THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK.
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 700MB /12C-18C/ ARE COMMONLY FORECAST WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES OF +30C. THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST SPELL SO FAR OF
THE SEASON WITH TRIPLE DIGITS IN PLAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST 1/4 OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANY
REALISTIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RIMMING NEBRASKA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS...WHICH IS NORMAL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AS IS IN THIS FORECAST. IN
GENERAL...ITS A DRY WEEK FOR MOST WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EFFECTIVELY CAPPING ANY SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.
ONE MINOR EXCEPTION...MORE LIKELY A LOT MORE WIND THAN RAIN...IS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TYPICAL HEAT AND ELEVATION
EFFECTS ROM FURNAS TO OSBORNE COUNTIES WESTWARD...WILL RESULT IN STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP...DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE. IN FACT...THE LIKELY 50 DEGREE
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL EVAPORATE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH
FORMS AS IT FALLS...AND PROBABLY JUST RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR
A COUPLE HOURS NEAR STRUGGLING SHOWERS. FOR NOW HAVE KEEP SILENT 14%
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT THOSE MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED TO A 20-25%
CHANCE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. ALSO...WHILE TUESDAY IS HOT...IT
WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE FROM
THE SOUTH. MOTHER NATURE IS PULLING OUT ALL THE STOPS FOR A BLAST
FURNACE TYPE OF DAY TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM TUESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH
NORTH CENTRAL LIKELY SEEING 90-95 DEGREES ON THE COOLER DAYS...IF
YOU WILL.

FINALLY...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF TOKEN LATE WEEK THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES /THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY/ THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MAY FLATTEN A BIT BY NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS THE SMALL
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM...BUT ITS PRETTY IFFY...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE. WITH THE FRONT THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...JCB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
256 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013

KSZ017-082045-
ROOKS KS-
256 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ROOKS COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM CDT...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZURICH...OR 22 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WEBSTER STATE PARK...
  ZURICH...
  PLAINVILLE...
  STOCKTON...
  CODELL...
  WOODSTON...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3913 9959 3927 9959 3941 9946 3948 9904
      3913 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 268DEG 27KT 3918 9947

GUERRERO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013

KSZ005-006-017-018-082200-
OSBORNE KS-PHILLIPS KS-ROOKS KS-SMITH KS-
410 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OSBORNE...
SOUTHEASTERN PHILLIPS...NORTHEASTERN ROOKS AND SOUTHERN SMITH
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 408 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF KIRWIN...OR 18 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PHILLIPSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  CEDAR...
  GAYLORD...
  HARLAN...
  PORTIS...

LAT...LON 3973 9865 3949 9863 3946 9913 3966 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 264DEG 27KT 3957 9907

GUERRERO