Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
709 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM GREELEY COUNTY IN THE
NORTH SOUTHWEST TO FURNAS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

SEVERE WEATHER IS ONGOING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SFC
LOW IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA. THERE IS A DRY
LINE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE DRY LINE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WAS
BEGINNING TO FIRE OFF THUNDERSTORMS AS OF 330PM.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 20Z MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE IF ANY
CIN REMAINING. STRONG SFC AND DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE AT 3 PM ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR EXPECTED NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

THIS IS A VERY VOLATILE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT WITH TORNADOES
ALREADY REPORTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SOME OF OUR EARLIER
STORMS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE ENHANCED THE LOW LEVEL
SHEER WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
AS HIGH AS 200 TO 250 M2/S2. WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY
TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR MODE BY LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BECOMING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ALTHOUGH A QLCS MAY DEVELOP
WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH GOLF
BALL SIZED HAIL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE
LARGER THAN GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LARGELY MOVE EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BUT THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE ARE ONLY
EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

GIVEN THE RECENT ACTIVE/FAIRLY WET PATTERN OF LATE...THE MAIN
STORY DURING THIS PERIOD INVOLVES A TRANSITION TO QUIETER/DRIER
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH SOME FAIRLY LOW POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY HAVE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT POP-FREE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
THEREAFTER...THERE WILL BE A RETURN TO AT LEAST SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND
POSSIBLY AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...BUT ITS TOO
EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN THE LOW 70S AND MID 80S...WITH SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
OVERALL COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S IN MOST NEB
ZONES...AND TUESDAY THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY MID-UPPER

STARTING OUT ON THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT AFTER 7 PM...ANY RISK OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...AS WHATEVER INSTABILITY IS LEFT
QUICKLY DIMINISHES. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS QUASI-ZONAL ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED 500
MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER. DURING THE
EVENING...WILL LINGER SOME SOME SLIGHT STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT MOST NEB COUNTIES SOUTH
OF I-80 AND W OF HIGHWAY 281. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE SOME 20-30
POPS ONLY WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SUGGESTION OF SOME MODELS THAT SOME STORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
FAR NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A 45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
WEST...LOWERED LOWS SLIGHTLY....AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER
40S/LOW 50S WEST TO MID/UPPER 50S EAST.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW
STARTS TO OPEN UP A BIT AND MOVE EAST...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...IT
WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE A DECENT INSTABILITY
AXIS COULD RESIDE JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...NOT THINKING
MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT LOCALLY...BUT WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST 1/2 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT UNDER A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ALOFT. AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE
40S AND EVEN 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE PROGGED WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CWA...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND UNFAVORABLE FUEL STATUS FOR
LARGE FIRE GROWTH...WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY ELEVATED/NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP
FRIDAY NIGHT DRY WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WELL SOUTH AND
EAST.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHER THAN THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF A
PASSING RAIN SHOWER NORTH OF I-80...LOOKS LIKE A DRY 24 HOURS CWA-
WIDE. THIS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ENHANCED BY RATHER BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY STRONGER. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN...AND LOWS ARE AIMED
DOWN AROUND 50 MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY MID 40S FAR WEST.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS
AS LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTS
IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES STARTS TO BRUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE
ARE FAIRLY SHAKY/LOW COVERAGE STORM CHANCES AT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STORM CHANCES GET A BIT BETTER AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST.
ALTHOUGH ITS FAR TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS...THE BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE LOOKS TO TARGET THE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
HEAVY AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS...TO PASS
ACROSS THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
ADDITION...SOME LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THE TERMINAL TO INCLUDE
IN THE CURRENT TAF. ONCE THIS LINE CLEARS ABOUT 30/05Z...EXPECT
PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO RETURN WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFT ABOUT 30/13Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-007-017>019.

&&

UPDATE...SAR
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...SAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
323 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
302030-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
323 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
HAIL AS BIG AS GOLF BALLS...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70
MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN TODAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE FOR THOSE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRIMARILY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

THERE ARE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE OUTLOOK
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN BETWEEN NEXT
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ANY
STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME STORMS NEXT
WEEK COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME
FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
908 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ006-017-018-300230-
OSBORNE KS-ROOKS KS-SMITH KS-
908 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OSBORNE...EXTREME EASTERN ROOKS
AND SOUTHERN SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 906 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARLAN TO NATOMA...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  PORTIS...
  OSBORNE...
  DOWNS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3913 9906 3957 9905 3967 9851 3957 9850
      3957 9848 3913 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 270DEG 30KT 3959 9870 3915 9901

HALBLAUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
914 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 PM     TSTM WND GST     SMITH CENTER            39.78N 98.78W
05/29/2013  E60 MPH          SMITH              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GUERRERO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
920 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

KSZ006-007-018-019-300300-
JEWELL KS-MITCHELL KS-OSBORNE KS-SMITH KS-
920 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JEWELL...MITCHELL...
EASTERN OSBORNE AND SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 915 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PORTIS TO NATOMA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  BELOIT...
  DOWNS...
  IONIA...
  CAWKER CITY...
  TIPTON...
  GLEN ELDER...
  JEWELL...
  HUNTER...
  RANDALL...
  VICTOR...
  SCOTTSVILLE...
  ASHERVILLE...
  SIMPSON...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3913 9861 3915 9861 3966 9859 3977 9793
      3922 9792 3921 9796 3921 9848 3913 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 271DEG 33KT 3965 9849 3913 9891

HALBLAUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
921 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

NEZ074>077-084-085-300245-
ADAMS NE-CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-FRANKLIN NE-KEARNEY NE-WEBSTER NE-
921 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAMS...NORTHERN WEBSTER...
EASTERN KEARNEY...NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...WESTERN FILLMORE AND CLAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 915 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7
MILES SOUTH OF GRAFTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINDEN...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO AROUND PENNY SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  HASTINGS...
  CLAY CENTER...
  AYR...
  FAIRFIELD...
  UPLAND...
  SHICKLEY...
  ONG...
  BLADEN...
  BLUE HILL...
  EDGAR...
  DEWEESE...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4038 9759 4035 9808 4035 9825 4034 9828
      4029 9901 4064 9901 4070 9784 4070 9768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 302DEG 31KT 4051 9771 4041 9897

PFANNKUCH