Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FEATURE PUSHING INTO WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY GOOD
CAPE/DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN ONE INCH. ALSO GIVEN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7PM FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR
DANIELS AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME
STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY PRODUCT SHOWS
CONSISTENCY WITH LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS. EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. BEYOND
MIDNIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT THEY SHOULD
REDUCE IN COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY
THAT TIME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIT THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE...DRIER
CONDITIONS...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER A REGIME OF LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO THE PRIMARY CONCENTRATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL MAKE UPDATES AS NEEDED AS
CONDITIONS WARRENT. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A LARGE HEAT DOME OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A RIDGE SPUR IS
ANTICIPATED TO JUT OUT OF THE DOME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA
AND ALBERTA. A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
UNTIL THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST MONTANA COMES UNDER THE FULL OF AND
INCREASING RIDGE. THURSDAY... THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL PASS
THROUGH AND ALLOW FOR A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
AXIS. THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE AXIS WITH
UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 30*
CELSIUS RANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH WEST MONTANA INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS... EXITING THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS WILL PLACE NORTHEAST MONTANA IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A WEAK
TROUGHS AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. A SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY TIMED ON FRIDAY WITH THE BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY HOWEVER... TIMING OF THESE WAVES COULD
EASILY SHIFT AS THE LAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE ALREADY MOVED THEM
AROUND.

SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD... THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OFF TO
THE EAST AND REPRESS THE HEAT TO THE SOUTH WHILE A NEW RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL GENERATE ZONAL TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK WARMING TREND. GAH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
DAY WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z. 21Z-06Z...HOWEVER A
LINE OR COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. 23-01Z FOR KGGW... 00Z-02Z FOR KOLF... AND
01-03Z FOR KSDY/KGDV BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. DO EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.       PROTON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
308 AM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

MTZ016>027-059>062-091000-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
RICHLAND-DAWSON-PRAIRIE-WIBAUX-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-
308 AM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL... HIGH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS AS THEY PASS THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1226 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

MTZ016-060-081930-
PHILLIPS-
1226 PM MDT MON JUL 8 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GLASGOW HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...

UNTIL 130 PM MDT.

AT 1221 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF ZORTMAN...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
   FOURCHETTE...

LAT...LON 4782 10862 4800 10759 4765 10753 4765 10760
      4763 10762 4765 10765 4763 10765 4763 10769
      4756 10776 4756 10792 4760 10807 4757 10836
      4761 10845 4759 10850 4761 10852 4761 10860
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 263DEG 26KT 4770 10849

RAE
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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