River Flood Warning 2, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
945 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE BULK OF THE UPDATE CENTERED AROUND HYDRO CONCERNS DETAILED
BELOW. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...MAINLY TO ADJUST
POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND TO TREND
DOWNWARD LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH. A COOP OBSERVER CALLED IN WITH A
CURRENT TEMP OF 36 SOUTHEAST OF OPHEIM. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PRETTY TIGHTLY WOUND LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY THEN THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. BUT PART TWO OF THE SYSTEM
IS THE WRAP AROUND WHICH WILL BE TAKING IT/S SWEET TIME LEAVING
THE AREA.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TODAY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO NOTICEABLY LIFT TUESDAY AS DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA BUT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY COOL.
WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEMPS TUESDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...ABOUT 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST PLACES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL NUDGE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BUT A STUBBORN UPPER VORT MAX WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AT
LEAST IN THE SE ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
JAMBA

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA. RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. THEREFORE
KEPT THIS IDEA GOING IN THE GRIDS. MALIAWCO

MAIN FEATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE AN UPPER HIGH PUSHING
TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND UPPER TROF DIGGING OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ECMWF IS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT FROM ITS AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN
RESULTING IN WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH INTO
MONTANA. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER THE STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS
AMID REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS. WINDS FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. MALIAWCO/MICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN
AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.

ISSUED FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SMALL STREAMS ACROSS PHILLIPS...VALLEY...
DANIELS...ROOSEVELT...RICHLAND...DAWSON...GARFIELD...AND PETROLEUM
COUNTIES. RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLOODING ON PEOPLES CREEK NEAR
DODSON...AND CHERRY CREEK NORTH OF GLASGOW. ALSO RECEIVED REPORTS
OF ROADS WASHING OUT IN PETROLEUM AND DAWSON COUNTIES. UPGRADED
GARFIELD...ROOSEVELT...DANIELS...AND RICHLAND COUNTIES BASED ON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP TOTALS. EXPECT
CONTINUED RISES AND FLOODING ACROSS MANY SMALL STREAMS INTO
TUESDAY.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAIN STEM OF THE MUSSELSHELL
RIVER NEAR MOSBY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR FORT PECK LAKE FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHERIDAN.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

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