Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
232 PM MDT THU JUL 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE PAC-NW IS INDUCING
AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL MT THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THERE COULD DEVELOP A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...SPREAD SCT POPS INTO THOSE AREAS AND
ADDED MENTION OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MORE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH MARCH OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY
LEADING TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE WARM AIR BEING PUMPED
INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...EXPECT ANOTHER
WARM DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO MONTANA TO BRING A CONTINUATION OF
CONVECTION AND ADDED QPF. THE WEAK TROUGHINESS AND CLOUDINESS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TO MORE SEASONAL HIGHS.

EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...WIND WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. IN ADDITION...SPC KEEPS NEMONT WITHIN
THEIR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM FOR
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SEE TEXT NOTES CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS. SCT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WESTERN RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSED AS SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST CANADA. FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. EBERT

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START
WITH ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE THAT IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE. THE MODEL RUNS ARE PUSHING
SYSTEMS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MORE THAN TRACKING THEM THROUGH
CENTRAL MONTANA. WHICH LEADS TO FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE FAIRLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
WARM UP TOWARDS THE VERY END.         PROTON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW