Wind Advisory 5, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

505 
WWUS74 KFWD 240413
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1113 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
7 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY...

.A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 25
TO 35 MPH. STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241215-
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0005.130324T1200Z-130325T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
1113 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

* TIMING...7 AM THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS 
  HIGH AS 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LARGE LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS 
  SUCH AS TRAMPOLINES MAY BE BLOWN ACROSS LAWNS. HIGH PROFILE 
  VEHICLES MAY ENCOUNTER SEVERE BUFFETING AND EXPERIENCE 
  STEERING DIFFICULTIES. LAKES AND OTHER STRETCHES OF OPEN WATER 
  WILL BECOME VERY CHOPPY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BOATERS SHOULD
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN VENTURING ONTO AREA LAKES.  RESIDENTS MAY
WISH TO TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND
OTHER LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE
STRONG WINDS.

&&

$$

116 
WWUS74 KFWD 240843
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
4 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 5 PM SUNDAY...

.WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT
25 TO 35 MPH. STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH EXPECTED. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241645-
/O.EXT.KFWD.WI.Y.0005.130324T0900Z-130324T2200Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
343 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* TIMING...4 AM THROUGH 5 PM SUNDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS 
  HIGH AS 45 MPH. 

* IMPACTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LARGE LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS 
  SUCH AS TRAMPOLINES MAY BE BLOWN ACROSS LAWNS. HIGH PROFILE 
  VEHICLES MAY ENCOUNTER SEVERE BUFFETING AND EXPERIENCE 
  STEERING DIFFICULTIES. LAKES AND OTHER STRETCHES OF OPEN WATER 
  WILL BECOME VERY CHOPPY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BOATERS SHOULD
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN VENTURING ONTO AREA LAKES.  RESIDENTS MAY
WISH TO TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND
OTHER LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE
STRONG WINDS.

&&

$$

CAVANAUGH

182 
WWUS74 KFWD 241620
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1120 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH 5 PM
CDT TODAY...

...FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY...


.NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WILL
START TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. IF YOU HAVE TEMPERATURE-SENSITIVE
PLANTS...YOU WILL NEED TO BRING THEM INDOORS OR COVER THEM WITH
PROTECTIVE MATERIALS.


TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-242230-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FZ.W.0001.130325T0700Z-130325T1400Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130324T2200Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
1120 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY. 

* TIMING...NOW THROUGH 5 PM SUNDAY FOR THE WIND ADVISORY. 2 AM
  UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FREEZE WARNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
  30S ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LARGE LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS 
  SUCH AS TRAMPOLINES MAY BE BLOWN ACROSS LAWNS. HIGH PROFILE 
  VEHICLES MAY ENCOUNTER SEVERE BUFFETING AND EXPERIENCE 
  STEERING DIFFICULTIES. LAKES AND OTHER STRETCHES OF OPEN WATER 
  WILL BECOME VERY CHOPPY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 TO
30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BOATERS SHOULD
USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN VENTURING ONTO AREA LAKES.  RESIDENTS MAY
WISH TO TAKE ACTION TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND
OTHER LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE
STRONG WINDS.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS THAT LATE SEASON FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. AUTOMATIC
SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO BE TURNED OFF TO AVOID CREATING ICE
PATCHES ON NEARBY ROADS...DRIVEWAYS...AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

$$

532 
WWUS74 KFWD 242044
NPWFWD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY...

...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS BEEN CANCELED...

.TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. IF YOU HAVE TEMPERATURE-SENSITIVE
PLANTS...YOU WILL NEED TO BRING THEM INDOORS OR COVER THEM WITH
PROTECTIVE MATERIALS.

THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT GUSTED AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40
MPH AT TIMES TODAY HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH BY SUNSET AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
MPH BY MIDNIGHT.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-250445-
/O.CAN.KFWD.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-130324T2200Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.FZ.W.0001.130325T0700Z-130325T1400Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...
KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...
EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
344 PM CDT SUN MAR 24 2013

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT
MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY.

* TIMING...2 AM THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 
  LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. 

* IMPACTS...THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER
  PLANTS AND VEGETATION THAY MAY HAVE BEEN PLANTED DURING THE
  EARLIER WARM WEATHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS THAT LATE SEASON FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. AUTOMATIC
SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO BE TURNED OFF TO AVOID CREATING ICE
PATCHES ON NEARBY ROADS...DRIVEWAYS...AND SIDEWALKS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
132 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...TIMING WIND SHIFTS AND CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
THOUGH THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH AN EXITING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.

METROPLEX...
TAF SITES ARE GRADUALLY CLIMBING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT...BUT WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND MINIMAL BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. DFW IS CURRENTLY IN SOUTH FLOW...AND WITH
NORTH WINDS UNDER 10KTS...THIS SHOULD BE FEASIBLE THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BUT STRONGEST WINDS MAY
LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND.

WACO...
VFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATER TODAY BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES. ORIENTATION
OF BOUNDARY MEANS FROPA SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF ARRIVAL
AT METROPLEX SITES. SIMILAR POSTFRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AS IN DFW.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE FOR ADJUST THE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOWERED THE FORECAST HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013/

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS...FOR A DETAILED DISCUSSION REGARDING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...PLEASE REFER TO
THE AREA WEATHER UPDATE /AWUFWD/ SENT AROUND 2 AM CDT.

CHANGES FROM THE 2 AM AREA WEATHER UPDATE...REGIONAL RADARS
OBSERVED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BIG SPRING TX TO
BRECKENRIDGE AT 0830Z /330 AM CDT/. THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE
WITH THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION INITIATION DISCUSSED IN
THE AREA WEATHER UPDATE THIS MORNING...SO NOT MUCH TO ADD HERE AT
THIS TIME. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST AND SHOULD
SPREAD IN COVERAGE NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT FROM THE NARROW BAND OF
CONVECTION BEING OBSERVED AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTERS MESOSCALE SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SCHEME /SPC SFCOA/ INDICATES THAT THE H850 MOISTURE MAXIMA WAS
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE OF STORMS AT 08Z. AREA VAD
WIND PROFILES FROM REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT THE LLJ HAS
STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...TO 35 KTS UPSTREAM OF THIS LINE OF STORMS.
THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THESE STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EAST
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH TX AND TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
AFTER SUNRISE.

THE 08Z SFCOA INDICATED THAT THERE WAS AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE /MUCAPE/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE H850 MOISTURE MAXIMA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTH TX FOR THIS MORNING INDICATE ABOUT
HALF THIS MUCH ELEVATED OR MUCAPE SO ITS NOT ENTIRELY OBVIOUS HOW
MUCH POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS WHEN THEY
SPREAD EAST INTO NORTH TX. AT THIS TIME...JUST LOOKING AT THE
INTENSITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION...TEND TO SIDE WITH THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR MUCAPE ADVERTISED IN RAP/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AS I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MORE EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH.

REGARDLESS...500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY
STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS NORTH TX TODAY. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN A
DISCRETE MODE...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE AND ANY
SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGER HAIL.
OF COURSE IF SFCOA IS ACTUALLY MORE REALISTIC WITH MUCAPE VALUES
THAT MAY BE AVAILABLE OVER NORTH TX LATER THIS MORNING...A MORE
WIDESPREAD HAIL THREAT MAY BE WARRANTED IN GENERAL. AS IT
STANDS...NEARLY ALL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
MULTI-CELLULAR STORM MODE WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR GREATER THAN QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING A
STRONG LOBE OF ENERGY OUT OVER THE PLAINS WHICH WILL SEND A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TX OVERNIGHT. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE YESTERDAY INDICATED THAT A NARROW FETCH OF
MOISTURE WOULD BE FED INTO A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR
THE TX PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS LED TO A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT RACED SOUTHEAST JUST OUT AHEAD OF
THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
LATEST /TODAYS/ HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS OPTIMISTIC
WITH AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY FOR CONVECTION...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED DOWN POPS ALONG THE FRONT AND REMOVED A MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THINK WE WILL STILL
SEE A BRIEF LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST. OF
COURSE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT TERM SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS FOR SIGNS THAT A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG. DID NOT GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IS TEMPERED BY THE FACT THAT THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WHEN LOW-LEVEL MIXING IS DAMPENED BY THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. GRANTED...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...AND THIS MAY REDUCE LOW-
LEVEL STABILITY SUFFICIENTLY TO MIX STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. AT ANY RATE...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE REASSESSED
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
STRONGEST WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER SOME SUNSHINE SUNDAY
MORNING...SURFACE HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO MIX STRONGER WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IF THEY REMAINED ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IF WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO HOLD IN THE 30 KT RANGE...WE MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS PART OR ALL OF
NORTH/CENTRAL TX ON SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY APPROACH FREEZING...BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO STRONG
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS THE CWA. URBAN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE THE
ONLY LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE REGION.
THIS AIR WILL BE MODIFIED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY...BUT ANY
WARM UP WILL BE SLOW UNTIL WE SEE A RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS AND THAT
SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT
MEANS THAT TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER FREEZE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH TX. WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD STAY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING TO THE CWA.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THAT
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD LEAD TO
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH TX AND THE
SOUTH PLAINS IN GENERAL. THIS COULD BRING A WET PATTERN TO NORTH
TX LATE NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND ASSUMING THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE DOING A GOOD JOB RESOLVING THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME WENT
AHEAD WITH BROAD BRUSHED 20 POPS DURING THE PERIOD AS WE SHOULD
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTH
FLOW THAT RETURNS TO NORTH TX WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT IT IS TOO
DIFFICULT TO WHITTLE DOWN TO ANY PARTICULAR TIME THIS FAR OUT AS
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON SMALLER PIECES OF ENERGY THAT
THE MODELS ARE NOT RESOLVING WELL AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  40  56  33  56 /  90  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              69  40  59  30  60 /  40  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             53  38  51  29  53 /  80  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            57  35  54  28  53 /  80  20   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          57  37  53  29  55 /  90  20   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            58  41  57  36  58 /  90  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           58  40  56  31  56 /  90  20   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         64  44  57  34  58 /  40  20   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  42  60  32  59 /  30  20   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  34  55  29  55 /  50  20   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
427 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-240930-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
427 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR QUARTER SIZE HAIL PERSISTING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1044 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TXZ148-231615-
ANDERSON TX-
1044 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY

AT 1042 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ELKHART.

HALF-INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3159 9526 3154 9565 3166 9573 3181 9540
      3179 9538 3177 9539 3175 9536 3174 9536
      3174 9534 3167 9527 3163 9527 3162 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 1542Z 247DEG 33KT 3165 9555

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 AM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HAIL             BURLESON                32.53N  97.32W
03/23/2013  E0.88 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO NICKELS... COVERING THE GROUND

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

TXZ104-232045-
COLLIN TX-
316 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COLLIN COUNTY

AT 315 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCKINNEY OR NEAR PROSPER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANNA...CELINA...FRISCO AND
PROSPER.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3340 9656 3339 9641 3336 9638 3335 9639
      3334 9637 3312 9683 3329 9683 3341 9666
      3340 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 235DEG 30KT 3326 9671

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     HAIL             1 S PROSPER             33.22N  96.82W
03/23/2013  E0.88 INCH       COLLIN             TX   PUBLIC