Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

.AVIATION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING PAST THE END OF THESE TAFS. I HAVE
CONTINUED THE PESSIMISTIC TAFS BASED ON MOS CIGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. AT PRESENT THERE IS NO FORECAST FEATURE TO FOCUS ON
FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING...AND AS EVENTS LAST NIGHT SHOWED STORM
INITIATION AND MOVEMENT MAY BE A BIT RANDOM. SURFACE LOW APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED RIGHT OVER THE METROPLEX AT PRESENT TIME PRODUCING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DAL AND NORTHWEST WINDS AT FTW. STRATUS
APPEARS PATCHY AT PRESENT..BUT EXPECT IT TO FILL IN AS SHOWERS
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MORE CONVECTION MOISTENS
THE LOWEST LAYERS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR. 84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UTAH THIS MORNING WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER
MAKER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THEN MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
INTO ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE GOOD
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE WHICH WILL
PROVIDE SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD PICK UP
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM UP TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY...AND WE WILL SEE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM BUT EITHER
SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  50  54  43  61 /  70  90  60  50  10
WACO, TX              74  60  64  43  63 /  60  90  70  40  10
PARIS, TX             66  45  48  41  56 /  70  80  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            69  47  50  40  60 /  70  80  60  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  47  50  40  59 /  70  80  60  50  20
DALLAS, TX            71  52  54  46  59 /  60  80  60  50  20
TERRELL, TX           73  50  54  41  58 /  60  80  60  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         73  56  61  45  60 /  60  90  70  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  62  67  44  65 /  60  90  70  40  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  49  51  41  62 /  70  90  60  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-030845-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
341 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE DURING THE DAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN NEXT MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
221 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     HAIL             5 SE DUBLIN             32.03N  98.27W
04/02/2013  E1.00 INCH       ERATH              TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUBLIN ON FM 219

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
224 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     HAIL             10 W DE LEON            32.12N  98.72W
04/02/2013  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL 10 MILES WEST OF DE LEON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 AM     HAIL             DUSTER                  32.13N  98.65W
04/02/2013  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN DUSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
528 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

TXZ115-021100-
STEPHENS TX-
528 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS COUNTY

AT 528 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING NORTH
AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE AND CRYSTAL
FALLS.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3296 9909 3296 9895 3295 9882 3262 9891
      3265 9910 3275 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 1028Z 188DEG 16KT 3272 9900

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