Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
319 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS AS LIFT FROM A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE CENTER OF
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH EASTERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO NORTH TEXAS UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL MOST LIKELY NOT CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
WHERE LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING GENERALLY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS AND A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
DECREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH/END ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY SOME
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED.

BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DEAMPLIFIES AND TRANSLATES TO THE EAST
AND A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
NORTH TEXAS. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD END ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  74  60  82  67 /  80  20   5  10  10
WACO, TX              62  73  62  80  64 /  80  30   5  10  10
PARIS, TX             56  71  57  75  61 /  80  30  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            57  71  56  80  65 /  70  20   5  10  20
MCKINNEY, TX          57  73  57  77  63 /  80  20   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            61  74  61  80  65 /  80  20   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           61  73  59  78  65 /  80  30   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         63  74  61  80  65 /  80  30   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            63  76  62  82  65 /  80  30   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  74  55  81  63 /  60  10   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

91/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
200 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
200 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DUNN

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