Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY BUT MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY
LATE THIS EVENING.

OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SLOWLY RETURNING
TO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE MAY
STILL SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE OVERALL COVERAGE
TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL BORDER ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDED 20 POPS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE MODELS THEN WANDER
THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE NORTH INTO EAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE /PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE THE 50TH
PERCENTILE FOR JULY/ THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE DAILY LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND NEAR
100 DEGREES NEXT WEEK.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  94  74  95  74 /  40  20  20  10  10
WACO, TX              71  92  72  92  73 /  40  20  20  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  93  73  94  72 /  20  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            72  93  73  93  73 /  40  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  72  93  72 /  30  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            74  93  75  96  76 /  40  20  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           72  94  73  94  73 /  30  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  93  73  92  73 /  30  20  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            70  91  72  92  72 /  40  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     69  91  72  94  72 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

75/82

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
435 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

TXZ101-102-172200-
JACK TX-WISE TX-
435 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN JACK COUNTY
  WESTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 435 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING NORTH AT
30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRIDGEPORT...CHICO...
BOONSVILLE AND COTTONDALE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3343 9797 3343 9788 3300 9757 3300 9803
      3320 9809 3334 9811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 158DEG 25KT 3316 9788

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

TXZ118-119-172245-
DALLAS TX-TARRANT TX-
510 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY

AT 510 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EULESS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH.  TERMINAL DOPPLER RADARS DETECTED A MICROBURST JUST SOUTH OF
DFW AIRPORT.  THE MAX WIND SPEEDS DETECTED WERE AROUND 40 MPH BASED
ON RADAR.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BEDFORD...COLLEYVILLE...
EULESS...GRAND PRAIRIE...GRAPEVINE...HURST...IRVING...KELLER...NORTH
RICHLAND HILLS...SOUTHLAKE AND WATAUGA.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3298 9718 3298 9705 3284 9687 3268 9701
      3290 9734 3299 9725 3299 9718
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 132DEG 15KT 3283 9704

CAVANAUGH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

TXZ119-134-172315-
DALLAS TX-ELLIS TX-
544 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY

AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RED OAK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CEDAR HILL...DESOTO...
DUNCANVILLE...GLENN HEIGHTS...GRAND PRAIRIE...LANCASTER...OAK LEAF...
OVILLA...RED OAK AND CEDAR HILL STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3251 9665 3240 9678 3257 9704 3270 9704
      3271 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 138DEG 19KT 3251 9680

CAVANAUGH