Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE...THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
WE EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THROUGH SUNRISE AS THEY
APPROACH NORTH TEXAS. STORMS SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST ZONES
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE STEADILY
EASTWARD WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST. WE
EXPECT ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE
SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BEING DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING
FACTOR. WE EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE REGION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGER RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL ALL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM GROWTH.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. ALONG
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE WEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY ELEVATED TO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...SO WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG
WARNING. THE WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND DECREASE
A BIT...BUT REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OVERNIGHT.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY...SO WE WILL LEAVE
POPS AT 10 PERCENT FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND BRING A BRIEF WARMING TREND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  41  57  35  69 /  80  10   5   0   0
WACO, TX              83  39  60  28  69 /  60  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             78  42  55  33  63 /  80  30   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            80  40  56  29  67 /  60  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          77  43  55  29  66 /  80  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            80  42  57  36  67 /  80  10   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  43  57  31  66 /  80  20   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         80  41  59  33  65 /  80  20   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            81  45  62  30  67 /  50  10   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  36  58  28  69 /  70  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091-100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091-092-100>103-115>118-129>133-141>145-156>159.

&&

91/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
738 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
738 PM CST MON JAN 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EASTLAND...TO DENTON...TO SHERMAN. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE. AREAS
EAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN...TO DALLAS...TO FAIRFIELD WILL SEE
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BRIEF TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG
WEST WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST OF A LINE FROM
BOWIE...TO FORT WORTH...TO GOLDTHWAITE WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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