Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Fort Worth, TX

814 
WGUS54 KFWD 210129
FFWFWD
TXC093-210345-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130521T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
829 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 829 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COMANCHE...
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
  ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
  IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH 1045 PM CDT.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
  INCLUDE...GUSTINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT AT NIGHT TO TELL HOW
MUCH WATER IS ON THE ROADS OR IF THE ROAD HAS BEEN DAMAGED OR WASHED
AWAY. TAKE A DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL
WATER RECEDES.

&&

LAT...LON 3196 9834 3194 9832 3198 9825 3184 9816
      3168 9846 3173 9849 3170 9868 3179 9874
      3191 9880

$$


82/JLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...
LATEST ACCARS KDFW SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP HOLDING THIS EVENING
OVER THE METROPLEX...THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT ANY METROPLEX TAF SITE THIS EVENING. ALSO...THE
CONVECTION WEST OF KACT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z BEFORE REACHING
THE AIRPORT. IF THIS SITUATION CHANGES AFTER SUNSET...THEN UPDATES
WILL BE WARRANTED BEFORE THE REGULAR UPDATE AT 03Z.

TUESDAY...UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SQUALL LINE FORMING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE METROPLEX 18-22Z AND THROUGH KACT 22-00Z. OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ONLY MODERATE AT THE MOMENT...BUT
DO FEEL THAT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS WILL BE AFFECTED TO SOME
EXTENT BY STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SOMETIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AROUND 18KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 22-24KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE TAF SITES IN
THE AFTERNOON.    75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAINS QUASI-
STATIONARY AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. AFTER TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURN OF NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD HELP TO PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS
THE RED RIVER EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME ACTIVE FROM SOUTH OF
WICHITA FALLS THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH THE CAP IS STILL
INTACT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...WE EXPECT
IT TO WEAKEN OUT WEST WITH STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 5 PM.
STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD BE NORTHEAST BUT LINE PROPAGATION WILL PUSH
THEM FARTHER IN OUR CWA THIS EVENING AND MAYBE TO A SHERMAN TO
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY MIDNIGHT. AS STATED EARLIER TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE CAPE THUS LARGE HAIL (UP TO
BASEBALL) AND DAMAGING WINDS (65MPH+) ARE POSSIBLE AND EXPECTED.
HELICITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST NEAR THE RED RIVER 5 TO 8PM...SO
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE OKLAHOMA ACTIVITY MIGHT
SLIDE ACROSS THE RED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO KEEP HIGH POPS
GOING FOR NOW.

TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA. SEVERAL HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE FORMING ACROSS OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE COULD BE SEVERAL LEFT OVER MESOSCALE
FEATURES THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL MIGHT
EXCEED 1 1/2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS...BUT DO NOT FEEL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN DUE TO GUIDANCE VALUES OF AROUND 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP BEING STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED OR PENETRATES FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE DRIER AIR WOULD
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS WED-FRI OVER THE NORTHERN HALF THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. 75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  71  86  65  88  69 /  30  60  40  10  10
WACO, TX              72  89  67  89  70 /  10  60  60  10  10
PARIS, TX             69  81  63  85  64 /  60  70  40  10  10
DENTON, TX            69  85  62  88  65 /  40  50  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          70  84  64  88  65 /  40  70  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            72  86  69  89  72 /  30  60  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           71  86  67  88  69 /  30  70  60  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         72  87  70  88  70 /  10  60  70  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  88  68  88  69 /  10  50  60  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  87  61  89  66 /  30  50  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

75/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
249 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE GENERALLY WEST OF
A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DENTON TO GRANBURY TO KILLEEN. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. AS THE STORMS HEAD EAST INTO MORE STABLE
AIR ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SQUALL LINE MAY ORGANIZE ALONG A
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PRODUCE A SWATH OF
DAMAGING WIND AS IT HEADS EAST AND SOUTHEAST. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THREATS IN ANY STORM THAT
IS SEPARATED FROM THE LINE.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
COUNTIES...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

92

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
452 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             EASTLAND                32.40N  98.82W
05/20/2013  E0.75 INCH       EASTLAND           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED IN EASTLAND NEAR EXIT 343 ON I-20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     TORNADO          1 S RINGGOLD            33.81N  97.95W
05/20/2013                   MONTAGUE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED 1 MILE SOUTH OF RINGGOLD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             JACKSBORO               33.22N  98.17W
05/20/2013  E1.75 INCH       JACK               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL ACROSS THE
            COUNTY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             NOCONA                  33.78N  97.73W
05/20/2013  E1.50 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOWIE                   33.57N  97.85W
05/20/2013                   MONTAGUE           TX   SELECT

            CERT MEMBER REPORTS THE DOORS AT THE WALMART WERE RIPPED
            OFF THE HINGES BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
634 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

..TIME...    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             CAPPS CORNER            33.80N  97.50W
05/20/2013  E1.00 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES WEST OF CAPPS CORNER