Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Fort Worth, TX

006 
WGUS74 KFWD 100129
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
829 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXC001-213-100140-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130510T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON TX-ANDERSON TX-
829 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN ANDERSON AND SOUTHERN
HENDERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3184 9544 3179 9598 3185 9599 3187 9597
      3187 9601 3190 9602 3191 9600 3195 9603
      3195 9604 3208 9607 3209 9612 3214 9610
      3224 9549 3215 9547 3209 9543

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WITH THE STRONGEST/SEVERE STORMS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MOVING EAST. THESE
SEVERE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS
AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SWEETWATER TOWARDS
SAN ANGELO. EARLIER HI-RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED THE STORMS
ALONG THE DRYLINE WOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS/SQUALL LINE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THESE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST
THESE STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX...BUT INSTEAD WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. ONE REASON FOR THIS COULD BE THAT THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT IS GENERATING BOTH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EJECTING OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. BASED ON THESE LATEST
TRENDS AND THINKING...THINK THAT THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS/COMPLEX BUT
THE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING CLOSE TO SUNSET. WHILE WE CANNOT
IGNORE THE STORMS TO OUR WEST...IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF OUR CWA BUT WE WILL BE
WATCHING THEIR OVERALL EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THIS
TIME DO NOT SEE A NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL AND HANDLE ON
THE STORMS TO THE WEST.

A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW AND IT LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONCHO
VALLEY/CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVE EAST. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW. SEVERE WEATHER WITH A
MAIN THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS MCS.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE CWA AND MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.
HOWEVER...THE 850 AND 700 MB FRONTS WILL STILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER POPS MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
BEYOND SATURDAY UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY.

ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND STALL OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. THERES A CHANCE THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL
ENTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY BUT THE GFS IS FASTER TO MOVE
THE LOW EAST OF THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ASSESS THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS AMPLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME DECENT INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  75  59  79  57 /  40  40  20  10   5
WACO, TX              65  75  61  78  55 /  50  80  40  10  10
PARIS, TX             61  75  57  76  53 /  60  30  20  10   5
DENTON, TX            60  74  57  79  53 /  40  30  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          60  75  57  78  52 /  40  30  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            64  76  60  79  57 /  40  40  20  10   5
TERRELL, TX           63  75  58  78  55 /  50  50  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         65  74  61  78  56 /  80  70  40  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            66  75  62  77  55 /  50  80  40  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  74  57  78  52 /  40  50  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

69/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
345 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF WACO EAST TOWARDS
PALESTINE AND CENTERVILLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A NEW LINE OF STORMS MAY ORGANIZE NEAR ABILENE AND MOVE EAST NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL...IF IT ORGANIZES AT ALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS SOUTH OF AN
EASTLAND TO GLEN ROSE TO PALESTINE LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO WACO TO
PALESTINE. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
236 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             TEMPLE                  31.10N  97.35W
05/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       BELL               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON THE EAST SIDE OF TEMPLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
241 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     TSTM WND GST     TEMPLE                  31.10N  97.35W
05/09/2013  E72 MPH          BELL               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            72 MPH MEASURED WIND GUST SW OF TEMPLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
243 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     HAIL             TEMPLE                  31.10N  97.35W
05/09/2013  E1.75 INCH       BELL               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NE SIDE OF TEMPLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             WESTPHALIA              31.12N  97.12W
05/09/2013  E1.00 INCH       FALLS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN WESTPHALIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
514 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ162-092245-
LEON TX-
514 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEAST LEON COUNTY

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTH OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3129 9567 3129 9570 3126 9572 3123 9572
      3121 9574 3116 9572 3113 9577 3109 9576
      3109 9592 3124 9597 3132 9566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 245DEG 32KT 3114 9580

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
601 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

TXZ135-148-092330-
HENDERSON TX-ANDERSON TX-
601 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTY

AT 601 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTH OF ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BERRYVILLE...COFFEE CITY AND
FRANKSTON.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3188 9543 3177 9594 3185 9599 3187 9597
      3187 9600 3190 9602 3194 9601 3195 9604
      3198 9607 3223 9549 3221 9546 3214 9547
      3208 9542 3201 9542 3200 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 254DEG 18KT 3196 9584