Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

382 
WWUS53 KFSD 072228
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
528 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013

SDC015-023-053-073-072245-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-130707T2245Z/
JERAULD SD-GREGORY SD-CHARLES MIX SD-BRULE SD-
528 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BRULE...
NORTHWESTERN CHARLES MIX...NORTHERN GREGORY AND SOUTHWESTERN JERAULD
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 525 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GANN VALLEY TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KIMBALL TO 9
MILES NORTH OF GREGORY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BURKE AROUND 535 PM CDT.
  KIMBALL AROUND 540 PM CDT.
  GRASS RANCH COLONY AROUND 545 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4349 9955 4352 9929 4358 9935 4364 9936
      4365 9946 4367 9948 4371 9941 4377 9942
      4385 9932 4392 9937 4394 9894 4408 9893
      4407 9873 4393 9881 4363 9880 4314 9887
      4315 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 273DEG 25KT 4400 9905 4365 9910
          4335 9935

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CHENARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
350 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013

INTERESTING FORECAST CONTINUES FOR TODAY. WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING WEAK UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT. CIRRUS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION COVERS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS HAS LIMITED SURFACE
HEATING AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH SOME...ALTHOUGH STILL SEEING A
MODERATELY TO HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULTING IN MLCAPE
TOWARDS 3000 J/KG. ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS FORMED IN SANBORN COUNTY AND
THINK POP UP STORMS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN CLOUD COVER.
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORM THAT DOES PULSE UP COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS.  GIVEN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...STORM MOTION IS
ONLY ABOUT 5 KTS...THUS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY IN ANY
STORM. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS...THUS
WHILE MOST STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY PULSE TYPE...A FEW MULTICELLS ARE
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE OF THESE POP UP STORMS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90...WHERE DEWPOINTS SEEM TO BE RUNNING HIGHEST. OTHER
AREA TO WATCH IS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE
STORMS ARE ALSO SLOW MOVING...ALTHOUGH IF THEY CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
ALONG OUTFLOW...CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD MOVE THE LINE EAST SOUTHEAST.
GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA...THINK THIS WOULD HAVE A
CHANCE OF MAKING IT INTO OUR CWA. LIKE MENTIONED ABOVE...QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WOULD BE THREATS IF THE LINE MOVES IN.
FEEL BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER...WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS REACHING INTERSTATE 29 LATER
THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. TONIGHT...DRY
AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN FROM THE NORTH...AS WE GET MORE
INTO THE 60 DEGREE TYPE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN ABERDEEN.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON MONDAY. THINK CIRRUS
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN TODAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO TODAY...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES. TONIGHTS CONVECTION MAY HELP PUSH THE LOWER DEWPOINT AIR
BRIEFLY INTO OUR CWA TOMORROW. STILL WILL BE HUMID...BUT MAY SEE
MORE UPPER 60 READINGS COMPARED TO THE LOW 70S OF TODAY. WENT AHEAD
AND REALLY SLOWED DOWN POPS FOR TOMORROW. KEPT IT MAINLY DRY THROUGH
0Z. THOUGHT IS ANY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST. OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED FROM
AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...WITH A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800
AND 700 MB...AND QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB. AS A
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE EJECTS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THINK
STORMS WILL FIRE IN EITHER CENTRAL OR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIR OVERHEAD...THOUGHT IS THAT THESE
SHOULD SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO OUR CWA...AND THIS IS BACKED BY BOTH
THE 4KM NAM AND WRF ARW. MOST PROBABLE TIMING WOULD PUT STORMS INTO
OUR FAR WEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AROUND 0Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BECOMES INCREASINGLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODELS
HANDLING THESE ELEMENTS DIFFERENTLY. AT THIS POINT...ELEVATED WARM
FRONT LOOKS TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS...MAY SEE CONVECTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY
EVENING THEN LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A COUPLE
OF SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE EARLIER IN THE EVENING WITH
ELEVATED CAPE RUNNING TIN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...THOUGH SHEAR IS
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SLATED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THINK THAT THE MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST
EARLY ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO A DRIER PERIOD THROUGH THE EARLY PART
OF THE DAY. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...SO
ANTICIPATE CAPPING ISSUES IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
COMES IN FROM THE WEST...MAY SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...AND PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR AT THAT POINT...SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE LIKELY.

ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PULL OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING SYSTEM. LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS
SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND EACH DAY INTO
SATURDAY...INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WHILE
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...SOME CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BETTER
CHANCE EXISTS IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 90 OR NORTH...AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...AND BEST CHANCE IS EAST OF TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY TRY TO MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. BUT THE CHANCE OF THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
KHON TAF AT THIS TIME. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. IF SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...COULD BE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR FOG LIKE LAST NIGHT...WILL NOT PUT ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 07 2013

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-081200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
355 PM CDT SUN JUL 07 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 90 OR NORTH. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO MAY
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL MOVE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING THESE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
29...WITH A SMALLER CHANCE AS FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 29. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE WITH STORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE IN FROM CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA....WITH HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THE STORMS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GREATER THREAT
WILL SHIFT INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.