Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST THU JUL 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. AS A RESULT...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF ARIZONA WITH THE THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUING EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGE PUSHED ACROSS
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS A RESULT...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE STORMS LIKELY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. THE HIGH
SHIFTS INTO NEW MEXICO WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
ARIZONA. UNDER THIS PATTERN GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH PROMISING A LOWER CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
BUT A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA.

LOOKING TOWARD MONDAY AND NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWARD WIGGLE OF THE HIGH
CENTER DELIVERING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A POTENTIAL DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN
IS ALSO CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER
MEXICO WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS/MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO
ARIZONA. UNDER THIS PATTERN MONSOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD
EASILY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW TO MEDIUM LEVEL MONSOON ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLD TO SCT TSRA PERSISTING
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BRIEF MVFR WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORM CELLS...THOUGH CIGS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8KFT AGL. STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 03-04Z WITH ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SCT -TSRA
WILL REDEVELOP AFT 18Z FRI. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL BE UNDER A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO FUEL SCATTERED DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO NEW
MEXICO WITH A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH CORRESPONDINGLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF