Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST TUE JUL 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NEVADA IS PROJECTED
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE SOUTH INTO ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN AZ
STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN A MAJOR INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER WERE DRY
ADIABATIC...RESULTING IN MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES. STORMS IN THE
FLAGSTAFF AREA HAVE PRODUCED 1 INCH HAIL...WITH A REPORT OF 1.5 INCH
HAIL AT KACHINA VILLAGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO BEEN IMPRESSIVE
IN LOCALIZED AREAS...UP TO 1.5 INCHES SO FAR AT FLAGSTAFF AIRPORT.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD...REACHING YAVAPAI AND NRN GILA COUNTY.
THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SOME TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE
STORM ACTIVITY...THOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT OVER AND THEN EVENTUALLY EAST OF ARIZONA. THIS
COULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A MORE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MONSOON
MOISTURE TO MOVE IN. POPS TREND UP SLIGHTLY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL BY A FEW DEGREES...CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLD-SCT TSRA/SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AZ DURING
THE EVENING. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS TO 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 04Z. ISOLD-SCT TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING...BRINGING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS BUT
ALSO A CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC.........JJ
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
333 PM MST TUE JUL 2 2013

AZZ004>018-037>040-030430-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
333 PM MST TUE JUL 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SCATTERED STORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
302 PM MST TUE JUL 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0301 PM     HAIL             KACHINA VILLAGE         35.10N 111.69W
07/02/2013  M1.50 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            KACHINA VILLAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1300030

CO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
303 PM MST TUE JUL 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             KACHINA VILLAGE         35.10N 111.69W
07/02/2013  M1.00 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY SMALLER STONES WITH A FEW UP TO QUARTER SIZED

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1300032

CO