Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST MON SEP 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY.  A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH LOW-GRADE MONSOON
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DECREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA HAS LIMITED THE
OBSERVED CONVECTION TO ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING.

MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL ROTATE TOWARD THE
WEST TONIGHT...SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE...AND WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA LATER
TONIGHT...AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

EVEN WITH A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR EAST NORTHEAST...WE DO NOT ESTABLISH A GOOD CONNECTION TO THE
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND AS A RESULT WILL RETURN TO
LOW-GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AS A DRIER AIRMASS
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THE DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...DECREASED CLOUD COVER...AND WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOSTURE RETURNING TO THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WE WILL HOLD POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS MORE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL MEMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AFT 03Z. MVFR AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........BAK
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
313 PM MST MON SEP 2 2013

AZZ008-016-018-037-022300-
GILA AZ-YAVAPAI AZ-NAVAJO AZ-
313 PM MST MON SEP 2 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
  SOUTHWESTERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

UNTIL 400 PM MST

AT 307 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF YOUNG AND PAYSON IN NORTHERN
GILA COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   YOUNG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3379 11114 3391 11128 3395 11139 3400 11144
      3400 11147 3414 11164 3419 11054 3382 11061
      3375 11070 3375 11100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 134DEG 5KT 3399 11100

RB