Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1025 AM MST WED JUL 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MAJOR MCS ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER
OVERNIGHT PUSHED DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE REGION WITH
A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALMOST TO THE UTAH BORDER.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY INDICATE 500-800 J/KG CAPE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DEBRIS
CLOUD AND A COOLER SURFACE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION...BUT
INITIATION IS ABOUT READY OVER THE WHITES AND THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL DRIVE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX POSSIBLE OVER THE DESERTS TONIGHT.
THIS MAY ENHANCE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF
FLAGSTAFF. THIS RICH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CURRENT PRODUCTS LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES
ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...DIMINISHING AFTER 03Z. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NEAR
STORMS WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AMPLE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
132 PM MST WED JUL 10 2013

AZZ014-017-102100-
NAVAJO AZ-APACHE AZ-
132 PM MST WED JUL 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA

UNTIL 200 PM MST

AT 129 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED THAT A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM VERNON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS NORTH OF VERNON IN SOUTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME
ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN HEAVY RAINFALL
SLOW DOWN TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING...AND LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 10989 3440 10979 3428 10959 3412 10970
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 122DEG 15KT 3424 10972

TC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
147 PM MST WED JUL 10 2013

AZZ014-017-102100-
NAVAJO AZ-APACHE AZ-
147 PM MST WED JUL 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA

UNTIL 200 PM MST

AT 140 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DETECTED THAT A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VERNON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE FROM PEA TO DIME IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND LIKELY IS
PRODUCING PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS IN AND AROUND VERNON.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL AREAS IN AND AROUND VERNON IN SOUTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME
ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN HEAVY RAINFALL
SLOW DOWN TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING...AND LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOURSELF AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 10989 3440 10979 3428 10959 3412 10970
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 122DEG 15KT 3424 10972

TC

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